{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1acdbc41-38f8-4f82-afc7-675a93494d83", "symbol": "GOOG", "name": "Alphabet Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.738, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.708, "architecture_energy": 14.951, "architecture_maturity": 43.532, "architecture_confidence": 72.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.62, "rotation_up": 21.46, "upward_expansion": 43.13, "deceleration": 81.58, "rotation_down": 32.35, "downward_expansion": 30.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 6011.538119, 6061.0024, 6177.461332, 6057.429454 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6062.970215, "trend_reference": 5907.650184, "distance_from_trend": 0.026291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3865.673742, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.568412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.084044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082714, "excess_performance": 0.137381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.568412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08084, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.319895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18798, "relative_activity": 1.426403, "balance": 0.319895, "dry_up": 1.320493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064981, "annualized_volatility": 0.35872, "from_high_reference": -0.126343, "from_low_reference": 0.633799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5907.650184, "fair_value_reference": 3865.673742, "structural_low": 4925.02002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02903, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.022085, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.154244, "worst_return": -0.090448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126272, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.078439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219845, "worst_return": -0.059519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.139847, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.078874, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.496765, "worst_return": -0.265564, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 5884.670009, "fair_value": 3815.271467, "relative_strength": 1.686865, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.525805, "energy": 18.625914, "activity_lines": [ 5942.538737, 6081.326873, 6162.410266, 6026.849488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6199.0, "volume": 23907, "typical_volume": 12370.15, "trend": 5903.310731, "fair_value": 3840.91209, "relative_strength": 11.175241, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.13114, "energy": 15.479643, "activity_lines": [ 6009.233398, 6080.187852, 6178.32098, 6047.128842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6062.970215, "volume": 18798, "typical_volume": 13178.6, "trend": 5907.650184, "fair_value": 3865.673742, "relative_strength": 8.084044, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.708162, "energy": 14.950809, "activity_lines": [ 6011.538119, 6061.0024, 6177.461332, 6057.429454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }