{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ad8323e-4b45-4255-9ec2-75b123aaacc6", "symbol": "GENCON", "name": "Generic Engineering Construction and Projects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.737, "architecture_energy": 28.586, "architecture_maturity": 13.8, "architecture_confidence": 79.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.23, "rotation_up": 16.32, "upward_expansion": 10.81, "deceleration": 52.92, "rotation_down": 54.8, "downward_expansion": 69.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.166668, 40.769455, 40.705096, 41.566904 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.470001, "trend_reference": 43.271333, "distance_from_trend": -0.087849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.92386, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.083665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263757, "excess_performance": -0.220048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263757, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1381421, "relative_activity": 1.854887, "balance": 0.710542, "dry_up": 1.704537, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07817, "annualized_volatility": 0.377697, "from_high_reference": -0.341728, "from_low_reference": 0.074891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.271333, "fair_value_reference": 42.92386, "structural_low": 36.720001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021596, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.705329, "worst_return": -0.259491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041605, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014103, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.795069, "worst_return": -0.351641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.881923, "worst_return": -0.230575, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132996, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.309628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"direction": -23.151645, "energy": 20.717603, "activity_lines": [ 42.114, 41.074727, 41.177762, 42.473484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.330002, "volume": 1265974, "typical_volume": 663890.3, "trend": 43.727333, "fair_value": 43.097052, "relative_strength": -5.383242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.386154, "energy": 21.861915, "activity_lines": [ 41.712001, 41.043637, 41.046429, 42.246452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.52, "volume": 1345185, "typical_volume": 697848.8, "trend": 43.620667, "fair_value": 43.0472, "relative_strength": -2.749508, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.892915, "energy": 12.510338, "activity_lines": [ 41.300001, 41.045455, 40.958238, 42.039527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.330002, "volume": 1085214, "typical_volume": 727207.6, "trend": 43.505, "fair_value": 42.990688, "relative_strength": -5.475003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.344433, "energy": 21.698294, "activity_lines": [ 40.772001, 40.999092, 40.86581, 41.827226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.470001, "volume": 1381421, "typical_volume": 744746.8, "trend": 43.271333, "fair_value": 42.92386, "relative_strength": -8.083665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.736936, "energy": 28.586346, "activity_lines": [ 40.166668, 40.769455, 40.705096, 41.566904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }