{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1adad338-6138-4545-bb5f-3cf6f173b2d9", "symbol": "600996", "name": "Guizhou BC&TV Information Network CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.401, "architecture_energy": 66.328, "architecture_maturity": 52.061, "architecture_confidence": 81.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 12.97, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 41.09, "rotation_down": 68.51, "downward_expansion": 87.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.653333, 6.995636, 7.724714, 8.081226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.02, "trend_reference": 8.517, "distance_from_trend": -0.175766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.892885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.834217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205882, "excess_performance": -0.162679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.25911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108469510, "relative_activity": 0.701009, "balance": 2.25911, "dry_up": 0.699105, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135218, "annualized_volatility": 0.504609, "from_high_reference": -0.456656, "from_low_reference": 0.187817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.517, "fair_value_reference": 8.892885, "structural_low": 5.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.012136, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.014214, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.240356, "worst_return": -0.254459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021092, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040163, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.775982, "worst_return": -0.28632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227165, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.186668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.69746, "worst_return": -0.125858, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 6.47, "volume": 146535357, "typical_volume": 163550872.1, "trend": 9.053667, "fair_value": 8.979808, "relative_strength": -30.431059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.008036, "energy": 78.08883, "activity_lines": [ 7.422667, 8.076727, 8.464, 8.665806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.21, "volume": 129987035, "typical_volume": 166120262.55, "trend": 8.889, "fair_value": 8.956667, "relative_strength": -28.681458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.901468, "energy": 85.540195, "activity_lines": [ 6.862, 7.678545, 8.230857, 8.482344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.27, "volume": 95878394, "typical_volume": 165148666.8, "trend": 8.750667, "fair_value": 8.932692, "relative_strength": -28.533751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.082842, "energy": 86.514989, "activity_lines": [ 6.498, 7.34, 8.015, 8.313376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 98364710, "typical_volume": 164744661.0, "trend": 8.617667, "fair_value": 8.911026, "relative_strength": -23.065497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.541237, "energy": 81.645006, "activity_lines": [ 6.475333, 7.125091, 7.853714, 8.184301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.02, "volume": 108469510, "typical_volume": 154733495.25, "trend": 8.517, "fair_value": 8.892885, "relative_strength": -21.834217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.400931, "energy": 66.327807, "activity_lines": [ 6.653333, 6.995636, 7.724714, 8.081226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }