{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1adc2575-3e01-4a3b-8225-34029f62665f", "symbol": "6090", "name": "Jazan Development and Investment Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.735, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.868, "architecture_energy": 20.836, "architecture_maturity": 25.599, "architecture_confidence": 81.357, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.01, "rotation_up": 24.25, "upward_expansion": 8.49, "deceleration": 49.19, "rotation_down": 36.49, "downward_expansion": 65.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.189333, 8.194364, 8.258429, 8.324452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.25, "trend_reference": 8.376333, "distance_from_trend": -0.015082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.178718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.712251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053899, "excess_performance": -0.02207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1063143, "relative_activity": 1.894737, "balance": 0.676211, "dry_up": 1.146455, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053893, "annualized_volatility": 0.186619, "from_high_reference": -0.269265, "from_low_reference": 0.092715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.376333, "fair_value_reference": 12.178718, "structural_low": 7.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.004369, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.006847, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.074286, "worst_return": -0.134259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.03118, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043105, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.079632, "worst_return": -0.260331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102703, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.033676, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.275651, "worst_return": -0.340092, "sufficient": true }, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.12, "volume": 268236, "typical_volume": 527171.4, "trend": 8.368667, "fair_value": 12.266026, "relative_strength": -8.899994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.100163, "energy": 17.171371, "activity_lines": [ 8.210667, 8.180364, 8.29819, 8.345892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.15, "volume": 404324, "typical_volume": 515370.2, "trend": 8.363667, "fair_value": 12.220962, "relative_strength": -6.232402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.375325, "energy": 19.145145, "activity_lines": [ 8.186, 8.178545, 8.273238, 8.331785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.25, "volume": 1063143, "typical_volume": 561103.1, "trend": 8.376333, "fair_value": 12.178718, "relative_strength": -6.712251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.867758, "energy": 20.835652, "activity_lines": [ 8.189333, 8.194364, 8.258429, 8.324452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }