{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ae1b299-814f-4d5f-a286-41081f787ca6", "symbol": "XFIV", "name": "BONDBLOXX ETF TRUST BLOOMBERG FIVE YR TRGT DURTN US TRSY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.61, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.668, "architecture_energy": 55.732, "architecture_maturity": 22.605, "architecture_confidence": 88.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.44, "rotation_up": 14.65, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 63.83, "downward_expansion": 87.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.068039, 48.170371, 48.280193, 48.404138 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.19, "trend_reference": 48.556942, "distance_from_trend": -0.007557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.241472, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.607312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013381, "excess_performance": -0.139006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.703519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 741332, "relative_activity": 1.729449, "balance": 1.703519, "dry_up": 1.664966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007632, "annualized_volatility": 0.040647, "from_high_reference": -0.027533, "from_low_reference": 0.011742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.556942, "fair_value_reference": 46.241472, 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48.379421, 48.54584, 48.619948 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 48.389502, "volume": 110796, "typical_volume": 339093.25, "trend": 48.672556, "fair_value": 46.018794, "relative_strength": -10.144258, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.44809, "energy": 31.978715, "activity_lines": [ 48.335606, 48.359831, 48.517324, 48.600919 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 48.673589, "volume": 185699, "typical_volume": 332061.5, "trend": 48.666821, "fair_value": 46.053273, "relative_strength": -7.13836, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.982889, "energy": 18.576926, "activity_lines": [ 48.456635, 48.398324, 48.517224, 48.600986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.312464, "volume": 107806, "typical_volume": 319778.7, "trend": 48.656917, "fair_value": 46.08844, "relative_strength": -9.50218, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.902835, "energy": 18.900511, "activity_lines": [ 48.422594, 48.377465, 48.483541, 48.578124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.135052, "volume": 605702, "typical_volume": 343548.95, "trend": 48.642735, "fair_value": 46.118041, "relative_strength": -10.745349, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.945337, "energy": 26.600373, "activity_lines": [ 48.339943, 48.334329, 48.437417, 48.544455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.229486, "volume": 1452700, "typical_volume": 409370.5, "trend": 48.626794, "fair_value": 46.148684, "relative_strength": -8.892253, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.682454, "energy": 29.774803, "activity_lines": [ 48.290781, 48.315725, 48.405282, 48.517794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.91401, "volume": 551810, "typical_volume": 429366.15, "trend": 48.598702, "fair_value": 46.178639, "relative_strength": -8.701171, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.265164, "energy": 57.190857, "activity_lines": [ 48.146111, 48.246341, 48.349275, 48.471808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.933634, "volume": 108923, "typical_volume": 401100.25, "trend": 48.573822, "fair_value": 46.208245, "relative_strength": -9.320211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.165486, "energy": 65.096023, "activity_lines": [ 48.039682, 48.183054, 48.300595, 48.4289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.19, "volume": 741332, "typical_volume": 428652.1, "trend": 48.556942, "fair_value": 46.241472, "relative_strength": -11.607312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.667516, "energy": 55.731511, "activity_lines": [ 48.068039, 48.170371, 48.280193, 48.404138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }