{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ae867c3-c06f-4000-8717-f608959a1835", "symbol": "ALVO", "name": "Alvotech", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.872, "architecture_energy": 5.74, "architecture_maturity": 21.568, "architecture_confidence": 66.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.71, "rotation_up": 24.17, "upward_expansion": 30.92, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 32.31, "downward_expansion": 46.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.660667, 3.635818, 3.584762, 3.627763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.81, "trend_reference": 3.84, "distance_from_trend": -0.007813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.404391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59487, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.071688, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.255859, "excess_performance": -0.443313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119468, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3189584, "relative_activity": 0.95952, "balance": 1.001827, "dry_up": 1.220189, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143559, "annualized_volatility": 0.709819, "from_high_reference": -0.588108, "from_low_reference": 0.295918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.84, "fair_value_reference": 9.404391, "structural_low": 2.94, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049433, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.05368, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.11419, "worst_return": -0.168478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075365, "worst_return": -0.175074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.165707, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.21683, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.116469, "worst_return": -0.214945, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 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9.624968, "relative_strength": -45.11864, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.893151, "energy": 16.479828, "activity_lines": [ 3.802, 3.643636, 3.589095, 3.799677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.61, "volume": 2906699, "typical_volume": 3256328.6, "trend": 4.094667, "fair_value": 9.592147, "relative_strength": -45.34648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.987802, "energy": 15.300937, "activity_lines": [ 3.760667, 3.656, 3.584381, 3.764409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.28, "volume": 2673075, "typical_volume": 3205912.15, "trend": 4.018333, "fair_value": 9.55125, "relative_strength": -50.096658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.986528, "energy": 20.886547, "activity_lines": [ 3.592667, 3.604182, 3.553143, 3.711849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.46, "volume": 2333470, "typical_volume": 3157685.65, "trend": 3.970333, "fair_value": 9.509968, "relative_strength": -43.826316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.788441, "energy": 24.326451, "activity_lines": [ 3.502, 3.588364, 3.543143, 3.675828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.06, "volume": 4225743, "typical_volume": 3185725.85, "trend": 3.897, "fair_value": 9.466763, "relative_strength": -48.099509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.166628, "energy": 48.018857, "activity_lines": [ 3.325333, 3.496182, 3.497571, 3.617097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 6475545, "typical_volume": 3353111.3, "trend": 3.867667, "fair_value": 9.437019, "relative_strength": -28.926141, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.982925, "energy": 11.964747, "activity_lines": [ 3.559333, 3.601273, 3.557476, 3.631484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.81, "volume": 3189584, "typical_volume": 3324145.0, "trend": 3.84, "fair_value": 9.404391, "relative_strength": -36.071688, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.872114, "energy": 5.740413, "activity_lines": [ 3.660667, 3.635818, 3.584762, 3.627763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }