{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1aeb05f0-7132-4280-9bca-1b63632f9f3e", "symbol": "ARMR", "name": "Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF USD Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.298, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.15, "architecture_energy": 14.658, "architecture_maturity": 69.065, "architecture_confidence": 53.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.55, "rotation_up": 32.99, "upward_expansion": 21.06, "deceleration": 44.01, "rotation_down": 21.21, "downward_expansion": 57.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.248, 24.831363, 25.000285, 25.680548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.629999, "trend_reference": 26.608333, "distance_from_trend": 0.000814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.457151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.249893, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033745, "excess_performance": -0.204636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10042, "relative_activity": 0.383296, "balance": 0.88524, "dry_up": 0.262891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046708, "annualized_volatility": 0.303526, "from_high_reference": -0.128314, "from_low_reference": 0.175717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.608333, "fair_value_reference": 22.457151, "structural_low": 22.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.080889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.070414, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.080889, "worst_return": 0.080889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148835, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 13.87, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.527276, "energy": 54.265052, "activity_lines": [ 24.088, 24.363818, 25.126976, 25.920183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.055, "volume": 6022, "typical_volume": 38968.75, "trend": 26.6955, "fair_value": 22.39132, "relative_strength": -14.945829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.824074, "energy": 39.463521, "activity_lines": [ 24.406666, 24.454182, 25.025619, 25.814258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.67, "volume": 7668, "typical_volume": 31372.8, "trend": 26.677, "fair_value": 22.414571, "relative_strength": -16.519091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.84437, "energy": 33.266561, "activity_lines": [ 24.550333, 24.46, 24.907167, 25.683581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.629999, "volume": 10042, "typical_volume": 26199.1, "trend": 26.608333, "fair_value": 22.457151, "relative_strength": -12.249893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.149678, "energy": 14.658062, "activity_lines": [ 25.248, 24.831363, 25.000285, 25.680548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }