{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1af4f940-e2a6-495d-9237-bc8bae91524b", "symbol": "603239", "name": "Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber&Plastic Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.516, "architecture_energy": 68.354, "architecture_maturity": 36.764, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.84, "rotation_up": 22.73, "upward_expansion": 13.93, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 60.92, "downward_expansion": 87.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.738, 14.272182, 16.91859, 18.571784 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.29, "trend_reference": 20.396583, "distance_from_trend": -0.299392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.643138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.498562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.39726, "excess_performance": -0.354056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.73388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.39726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.237021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18295951, "relative_activity": 0.827034, "balance": 0.237021, "dry_up": 0.850917, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13722, "annualized_volatility": 0.470453, "from_high_reference": -0.453355, "from_low_reference": 0.158023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.396583, "fair_value_reference": 15.643138, "structural_low": 12.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.077869, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069482, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.28777, "worst_return": -0.177519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.216036, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.180647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.46223, "worst_return": 0.016393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10777, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.048837, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.307278, "worst_return": -0.07808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.803988, "fair_value": 15.65075, "relative_strength": -32.420777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.846188, "energy": 88.830459, "activity_lines": [ 13.581333, 14.952994, 17.974163, 19.417438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 18779000, "typical_volume": 22060494.6, "trend": 20.593646, "fair_value": 15.64382, "relative_strength": -26.165019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.37737, "energy": 78.123601, "activity_lines": [ 13.597333, 14.513636, 17.41447, 18.978471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.29, "volume": 18295951, "typical_volume": 22122377.15, "trend": 20.396583, "fair_value": 15.643138, "relative_strength": -26.498562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.516016, "energy": 68.354321, "activity_lines": [ 13.738, 14.272182, 16.91859, 18.571784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }