{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1af8e001-b980-498c-872e-5087230a4bb5", "symbol": "VANA", "name": "Vanadi Coffee SA", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.185, "architecture_energy": 68.764, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 29.73, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.0, "rotation_down": 59.61, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021913, 0.023164, 0.027649, 0.036141 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0202, "trend_reference": 0.054067, "distance_from_trend": -0.626387, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.171872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.882471, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -88.895164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.834426, "excess_performance": -0.958857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.626387, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.54248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.882471, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.888952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.834426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37345488, "relative_activity": 1.767481, "balance": 0.299341, "dry_up": 1.441392, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25933, "annualized_volatility": 0.762643, "from_high_reference": -0.954195, "from_low_reference": 0.015075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.054067, "fair_value_reference": 0.171872, "structural_low": 0.0199, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.208011, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.234735, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 15.744186, "worst_return": -0.404918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.480016, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.567444, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 14.425532, "worst_return": -0.691824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 13.18052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 12.994027, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 27.191489, "worst_return": -0.83045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.04126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0215, "volume": 12352040, "typical_volume": 20313809.25, "trend": 0.058293, "fair_value": 0.176165, "relative_strength": -88.558293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.600483, "energy": 66.178679, "activity_lines": [ 0.02308, 0.024073, 0.029006, 0.038598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0202, "volume": 37345488, "typical_volume": 21129220.95, "trend": 0.054067, "fair_value": 0.171872, "relative_strength": -88.895164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.185041, "energy": 68.763622, "activity_lines": [ 0.021913, 0.023164, 0.027649, 0.036141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }