{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1afd7425-6a70-4786-ad42-f6582c34b277", "symbol": "MNY", "name": "MoneyHero Limited Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.637, "architecture_energy": 50.924, "architecture_maturity": 50.528, "architecture_confidence": 90.478, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.32, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 7.91, "deceleration": 58.32, "rotation_down": 53.58, "downward_expansion": 78.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.94822, 0.971344, 1.098219, 1.166886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.92, "trend_reference": 1.232407, "distance_from_trend": -0.253493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.386948, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.983186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245902, "excess_performance": -0.433355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59153, "relative_activity": 0.366516, "balance": 0.622815, "dry_up": 0.356782, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163963, "annualized_volatility": 0.576617, "from_high_reference": -0.616667, "from_low_reference": 0.179487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.232407, "fair_value_reference": 1.386948, "structural_low": 0.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.086184, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09027, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.262055, "worst_return": 0.046486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.664378, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.508913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.256757, "worst_return": 0.072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090685, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.527027, "worst_return": -0.2248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108434, "active": true } ], 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1.206145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9677, "volume": 28784, "typical_volume": 174936.2, "trend": 1.243407, "fair_value": 1.390124, "relative_strength": -34.723293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.668836, "energy": 50.960323, "activity_lines": [ 0.95892, 0.99942, 1.125572, 1.187751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.92, "volume": 59153, "typical_volume": 161392.8, "trend": 1.232407, "fair_value": 1.386948, "relative_strength": -39.983186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637268, "energy": 50.923701, "activity_lines": [ 0.94822, 0.971344, 1.098219, 1.166886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }