{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1aff5c8f-25b1-4541-bc89-f40efc5f99b9", "symbol": "600301", "name": "Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.416, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.786, "architecture_energy": 70.126, "architecture_maturity": 7.918, "architecture_confidence": 57.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.74, "rotation_up": 8.25, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 37.5, "rotation_down": 73.79, "downward_expansion": 88.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.188665, 48.895387, 52.038666, 52.728285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.439999, "trend_reference": 53.037409, "distance_from_trend": -0.048973, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.172771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.927194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.717136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108991, "excess_performance": -0.065788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.927194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.639447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147171, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74318641, "relative_activity": 1.289392, "balance": 1.510839, "dry_up": 1.154558, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157956, "annualized_volatility": 0.824521, "from_high_reference": -0.351421, "from_low_reference": 1.31908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.037409, "fair_value_reference": 26.172771, "structural_low": 35.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050083, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.242571, "worst_return": -0.087428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.071283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324648, "worst_return": -0.182081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.458881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.320895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.883803, "worst_return": 0.03396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.359049, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.404864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.279535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.226057, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 17.709999, "volume": 25771063, "typical_volume": 25020069.7, "trend": 17.182667, "fair_value": 11.670064, "relative_strength": 15.185508, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.316626, "energy": 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58.355793, 56.459519, 55.32138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.939999, "volume": 66043702, "typical_volume": 57128593.05, "trend": 52.582409, "fair_value": 25.679181, "relative_strength": -4.839537, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.664938, "energy": 27.278835, "activity_lines": [ 50.801333, 54.855958, 54.840175, 54.442838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.599998, "volume": 72041483, "typical_volume": 56243732.4, "trend": 52.538409, "fair_value": 25.815848, "relative_strength": -5.221909, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.932014, "energy": 45.976852, "activity_lines": [ 45.663332, 51.850613, 53.40664, 53.605263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.139999, "volume": 53784287, "typical_volume": 56339364.55, "trend": 52.634742, "fair_value": 25.962258, "relative_strength": -2.686135, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.318645, "energy": 60.76233, "activity_lines": [ 42.772665, 49.416266, 52.238344, 52.869881 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.439999, "volume": 74318641, "typical_volume": 57638522.2, "trend": 53.037409, "fair_value": 26.172771, "relative_strength": 14.717136, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.785675, "energy": 70.125566, "activity_lines": [ 44.188665, 48.895387, 52.038666, 52.728285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }