{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b094e1d-12f7-4d18-9b55-3788d41e8583", "symbol": "LOXLEY", "name": "Loxley Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.125, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.332, "architecture_energy": 9.658, "architecture_maturity": 47.375, "architecture_confidence": 75.864, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.54, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 44.8, "deceleration": 87.25, "rotation_down": 26.85, "downward_expansion": 25.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.448667, 1.456909, 1.469571, 1.442346 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.389761, "distance_from_trend": 0.043345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.305458, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.460151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.229254, "excess_performance": 0.036929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043345, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044269, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041113, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229254, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.290912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13021900, "relative_activity": 3.206318, "balance": 6.290912, "dry_up": 2.32322, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056764, "annualized_volatility": 0.333982, "from_high_reference": -0.195514, "from_low_reference": 0.359794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.389761, "fair_value_reference": 1.305458, "structural_low": 1.141831, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022117, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.025191, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024794, "worst_return": -0.104166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077851, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.020786, "worst_return": -0.172186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.087674, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.074324, "worst_return": -0.116788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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} ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }