{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b0b0b9d-da7a-4ec1-be3c-91d8fa798c6f", "symbol": "CABK", "name": "CaixaBank, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.522, "architecture_energy": 60.879, "architecture_maturity": 74.108, "architecture_confidence": 82.917, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 57.29, "upward_expansion": 84.36, "deceleration": 68.01, "rotation_down": 24.75, "downward_expansion": 11.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.789667, 12.656182, 12.130258, 11.643128 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.82, "trend_reference": 11.100641, "distance_from_trend": 0.154888, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.557301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.955073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.613055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218374, "excess_performance": 0.093943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095068, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.955073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086131, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.903696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25918794, "relative_activity": 0.783705, "balance": 1.903696, "dry_up": 1.028285, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044222, "annualized_volatility": 0.298999, "from_high_reference": -0.048255, "from_low_reference": 0.60984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.100641, "fair_value_reference": 6.557301, "structural_low": 9.188311, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.031731, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.004328, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.145763, "worst_return": -0.146193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.059054, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.046526, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.442814, "worst_return": -0.105071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.178898, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.068162, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.462543, "worst_return": -0.056746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 34673348.3, "trend": 10.935595, "fair_value": 6.434003, "relative_strength": 16.746096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.24802, "energy": 83.6996, "activity_lines": [ 12.771, 12.504091, 11.874047, 11.419463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.595, "volume": 44883860, "typical_volume": 34297269.85, "trend": 11.012593, "fair_value": 6.495184, "relative_strength": 9.12574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.681971, "energy": 62.491498, "activity_lines": [ 12.752333, 12.570273, 11.998826, 11.526521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.82, "volume": 25918794, "typical_volume": 33072123.9, "trend": 11.100641, "fair_value": 6.557301, "relative_strength": 8.613055, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.521692, "energy": 60.878838, "activity_lines": [ 12.789667, 12.656182, 12.130258, 11.643128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }