{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b0cd8bc-65cf-43a2-964b-173eb2a49bd3", "symbol": "PG", "name": "Procter & Gamble Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.375, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.066, "architecture_energy": 15.52, "architecture_maturity": 34.28, "architecture_confidence": 72.339, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.13, "rotation_up": 18.83, "upward_expansion": 16.0, "deceleration": 52.11, "rotation_down": 44.52, "downward_expansion": 61.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.190898, 147.133314, 146.729984, 147.233314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 145.79, "trend_reference": 148.376833, "distance_from_trend": -0.017434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 152.16658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.414888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077333, "excess_performance": -0.202958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017434, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013218, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42291766, "relative_activity": 0.995947, "balance": 0.764056, "dry_up": 0.966464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046908, "annualized_volatility": 0.179678, "from_high_reference": -0.121908, "from_low_reference": 0.074659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.376833, "fair_value_reference": 152.16658, "structural_low": 138.86, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022961, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.013341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085766, "worst_return": -0.095458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011556, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025258, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.06285, "worst_return": -0.040971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01434, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.20258, "worst_return": -0.050313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064524, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.120535, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135176, "worst_return": -0.100371, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055733, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.004772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009982, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 142.033085, "volume": 29443429, "typical_volume": 29246698.1, "trend": 137.364842, "fair_value": 129.108669, "relative_strength": -1.794754, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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146.663882, 147.565048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.880641, "volume": 37066958, "typical_volume": 45372602.7, "trend": 147.863957, "fair_value": 152.158474, "relative_strength": -8.123808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.569618, "energy": 8.454319, "activity_lines": [ 148.285701, 147.843044, 146.814309, 147.644568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.41, "volume": 31307200, "typical_volume": 44625090.85, "trend": 148.021613, "fair_value": 152.169842, "relative_strength": -8.118168, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.605702, "energy": 10.602237, "activity_lines": [ 147.932475, 147.952709, 146.906104, 147.61528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.49, "volume": 53493267, "typical_volume": 45054900.8, "trend": 148.178871, "fair_value": 152.169237, "relative_strength": -10.546952, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.336527, "energy": 16.846957, "activity_lines": [ 146.730431, 147.425284, 146.744088, 147.387434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.79, "volume": 42291766, "typical_volume": 42463871.0, "trend": 148.376833, "fair_value": 152.16658, "relative_strength": -12.414888, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.066242, "energy": 15.520206, "activity_lines": [ 146.190898, 147.133314, 146.729984, 147.233314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }