{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b286973-84a3-4b83-8351-75beedcd5a84", "symbol": "LPET", "name": "WisdomTree Petroleum 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.487, "architecture_energy": 35.267, "architecture_maturity": 27.96, "architecture_confidence": 61.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.64, "rotation_up": 64.47, "upward_expansion": 67.72, "deceleration": 64.48, "rotation_down": 9.2, "downward_expansion": 11.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.188, 70.301454, 72.794619, 71.531376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.720001, "trend_reference": 65.136, "distance_from_trend": 0.085728, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.169423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.677045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.567528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.121812, "excess_performance": 0.95092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.677045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.63151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.121812, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2038, "relative_activity": 0.712401, "balance": 0.798521, "dry_up": 0.72079, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166953, "annualized_volatility": 1.174067, "from_high_reference": -0.306735, "from_low_reference": 1.825974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.136, "fair_value_reference": 42.169423, "structural_low": 31.889999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.056884, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.042423, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.208272, "worst_return": -0.322142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03904, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.165399, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.948066, "worst_return": -0.165837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.758507, "worst_return": -0.209106, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.138719, "energy": 29.278596, "activity_lines": [ 62.438666, 65.215999, 71.781904, 68.25743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.43, "volume": 1195, "typical_volume": 5795.2, "trend": 61.931833, "fair_value": 41.740577, "relative_strength": 56.713664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.940916, "energy": 21.352668, "activity_lines": [ 70.595999, 67.744726, 72.765095, 69.831989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.290001, "volume": 3183, "typical_volume": 4051.95, "trend": 63.737666, "fair_value": 41.995064, "relative_strength": 47.800566, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.400059, "energy": 35.070123, "activity_lines": [ 76.129333, 69.908, 73.300857, 71.080903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.720001, "volume": 2038, "typical_volume": 2860.75, "trend": 65.136, "fair_value": 42.169423, "relative_strength": 23.567528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.487262, "energy": 35.267231, "activity_lines": [ 76.188, 70.301454, 72.794619, 71.531376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }