{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b2c4303-55f5-4630-bf34-0bf1f31030cf", "symbol": "TROO", "name": "TROOPS Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.798, "architecture_energy": 58.372, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.669, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.16, "rotation_up": 14.35, "upward_expansion": 11.86, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 63.35, "downward_expansion": 85.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.937333, 2.087909, 2.579357, 2.738441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.95, "trend_reference": 3.006167, "distance_from_trend": -0.351333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.215958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.31028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.502551, "excess_performance": -0.690005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.351333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.895104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.120454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.502551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.862714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 996850, "relative_activity": 0.640214, "balance": 0.862714, "dry_up": 0.890108, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.344379, "annualized_volatility": 1.229663, "from_high_reference": -0.630905, "from_low_reference": 1.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.006167, "fair_value_reference": 2.215958, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.119737, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.102178, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.837079, "worst_return": -0.496296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.139108, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.113644, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.803559, "worst_return": -0.554365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.234654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.14189, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.301205, "worst_return": -0.5826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.347701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162281, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.574586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.694102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211679, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.765242, "energy": 55.378443, "activity_lines": [ 2.259, 2.513455, 2.862095, 2.983656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.96, "volume": 1470371, "typical_volume": 1582067.4, "trend": 3.157833, "fair_value": 2.248008, "relative_strength": -22.890379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.998574, "energy": 55.648236, "activity_lines": [ 2.137333, 2.346636, 2.772405, 2.906441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.7, "volume": 738398, "typical_volume": 1550023.6, "trend": 3.096167, "fair_value": 2.231342, "relative_strength": -33.878339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.315238, "energy": 60.46513, "activity_lines": [ 1.969667, 2.172909, 2.661381, 2.812387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.95, "volume": 996850, "typical_volume": 1557057.55, "trend": 3.006167, "fair_value": 2.215958, "relative_strength": -28.31028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.798198, "energy": 58.372476, "activity_lines": [ 1.937333, 2.087909, 2.579357, 2.738441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }