{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b3a177b-4d57-41fd-8fbd-b6fe5fc496d3", "symbol": "RROS", "name": "Rottneros AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.492, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.794, "architecture_energy": 16.413, "architecture_maturity": 52.318, "architecture_confidence": 87.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.17, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 34.51, "downward_expansion": 65.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.191, 2.175, 2.212952, 2.251473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.38, "trend_reference": 2.303333, "distance_from_trend": 0.033285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.155417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.667385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.717499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006342, "excess_performance": -0.055152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.667385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099686, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.879147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4040226, "relative_activity": 5.798155, "balance": 1.879147, "dry_up": 2.050423, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057854, "annualized_volatility": 0.3177, "from_high_reference": -0.418803, "from_low_reference": 0.226804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.303333, "fair_value_reference": 7.155417, "structural_low": 2.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.016037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034568, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.175123, "worst_return": -0.380266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.090009, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.11619, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.333879, "worst_return": -0.465922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.161985, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.226453, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.051814, "worst_return": -0.634637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.220123, "energy": 35.082939, "activity_lines": [ 2.170667, 2.180818, 2.244214, 2.285204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 528782, "typical_volume": 537755.35, "trend": 2.346667, "fair_value": 7.258509, "relative_strength": -28.784229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.149874, "energy": 45.869966, "activity_lines": [ 2.134333, 2.153, 2.221405, 2.26472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 784686, "typical_volume": 518226.85, "trend": 2.318667, "fair_value": 7.206125, "relative_strength": -28.013041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.048179, "energy": 50.486047, "activity_lines": [ 2.108333, 2.135182, 2.202167, 2.247516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.38, "volume": 4040226, "typical_volume": 696812.4, "trend": 2.303333, "fair_value": 7.155417, "relative_strength": -18.717499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.793506, "energy": 16.412591, "activity_lines": [ 2.191, 2.175, 2.212952, 2.251473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }