{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b3bf074-6e0d-42ae-a725-9ebdcba6849d", "symbol": "XRF", "name": "XRF Scientific Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.031, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.407, "architecture_energy": 18.848, "architecture_maturity": 12.271, "architecture_confidence": 69.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.87, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 10.02, "deceleration": 56.99, "rotation_down": 41.86, "downward_expansion": 66.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.763, 1.759, 1.787738, 1.794075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.83, "trend_reference": 1.831833, "distance_from_trend": -0.001001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.595465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.057087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066327, "excess_performance": -0.130032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531582, "relative_activity": 1.00629, "balance": 1.368896, "dry_up": 0.979164, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061896, "annualized_volatility": 0.342344, "from_high_reference": -0.2375, "from_low_reference": 0.14375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.831833, "fair_value_reference": 1.595465, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.087975, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.049305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22561, "worst_return": -0.062147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104237, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284024, "worst_return": 0.045198, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.226087, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.19932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295919, "worst_return": 0.13039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064, "active": false 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1.860667, "fair_value": 1.585057, "relative_strength": -13.705949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.888272, "energy": 59.394882, "activity_lines": [ 1.733333, 1.769545, 1.793857, 1.810903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.71, "volume": 445866, "typical_volume": 547114.15, "trend": 1.853333, "fair_value": 1.588026, "relative_strength": -11.639631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.191455, "energy": 55.22165, "activity_lines": [ 1.719667, 1.754273, 1.786381, 1.801183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.755, "volume": 469813, "typical_volume": 534293.75, "trend": 1.841833, "fair_value": 1.591224, "relative_strength": -11.231609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.867866, "energy": 39.770315, "activity_lines": [ 1.729, 1.748273, 1.783476, 1.794839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.83, "volume": 531582, "typical_volume": 528259.2, "trend": 1.831833, "fair_value": 1.595465, "relative_strength": -10.057087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.407259, "energy": 18.848154, "activity_lines": [ 1.763, 1.759, 1.787738, 1.794075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }