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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.536, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.603, "architecture_energy": 58.729, "architecture_maturity": 11.749, "architecture_confidence": 84.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.01, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 12.57, "deceleration": 38.11, "rotation_down": 66.5, "downward_expansion": 85.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.802683, 104.27288, 109.151012, 109.947127 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 101.0, "trend_reference": 111.832327, "distance_from_trend": -0.096862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.299583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.525372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119714, "excess_performance": -0.561086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039009, "read": "Rising" }, { 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"direction": -14.254206, "energy": 13.923726, "activity_lines": [ 110.734845, 114.264046, 113.3752, 112.948717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.813522, "volume": 13436432, "typical_volume": 25081662.65, "trend": 111.451743, "fair_value": 96.419715, "relative_strength": -30.676276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.607979, "energy": 22.74425, "activity_lines": [ 106.702307, 111.523316, 112.328203, 112.273324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.599998, "volume": 10388920, "typical_volume": 24914399.65, "trend": 111.408634, "fair_value": 96.69192, "relative_strength": -31.332122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.674424, "energy": 51.121966, "activity_lines": [ 102.654735, 108.399063, 111.032307, 111.379663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.800003, "volume": 5642359, "typical_volume": 24535368.2, "trend": 111.59568, "fair_value": 96.987529, "relative_strength": -30.724401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.940532, "energy": 59.661054, "activity_lines": [ 100.418848, 106.038734, 110.009244, 110.630719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 101.0, "volume": 7180869, "typical_volume": 24312955.15, "trend": 111.832327, "fair_value": 97.299583, "relative_strength": -31.525372, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.603089, "energy": 58.729241, "activity_lines": [ 99.802683, 104.27288, 109.151012, 109.947127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }