{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b3ffe02-dfae-4226-b7a9-dd92c31b76ee", "symbol": "NEXT34", "name": "NextEra Energy, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.969, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.238, "architecture_energy": 44.479, "architecture_maturity": 15.06, "architecture_confidence": 93.796, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.74, "rotation_up": 20.36, "upward_expansion": 9.99, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 52.03, "downward_expansion": 78.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.829334, 111.803637, 112.60824, 113.984617 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 107.900002, "trend_reference": 115.186036, "distance_from_trend": -0.063254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.031188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.9238, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06088, "excess_performance": -0.003831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040821, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.342228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37958, "relative_activity": 5.217487, "balance": 0.342228, "dry_up": 1.936111, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045592, "annualized_volatility": 0.227139, "from_high_reference": -0.139545, "from_low_reference": 0.184176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.186036, "fair_value_reference": 98.031188, "structural_low": 106.839996, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.003211, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006715, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.094868, "worst_return": -0.130199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040213, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230347, "worst_return": -0.11617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02559, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097584, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.351904, "worst_return": -0.156803, 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47.277009, "activity_lines": [ 110.528042, 112.25185, 114.803908, 115.115685 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 113.900002, "volume": 1608, "typical_volume": 4733.3, "trend": 114.774761, "fair_value": 96.872143, "relative_strength": -3.74388, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.31128, "energy": 22.682001, "activity_lines": [ 111.745668, 112.289955, 114.556392, 115.057709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 115.389999, "volume": 592, "typical_volume": 4654.45, "trend": 114.855304, "fair_value": 97.08118, "relative_strength": -2.891084, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.868726, "energy": 8.295618, "activity_lines": [ 113.210667, 112.594316, 114.455517, 115.097402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 112.190002, "volume": 10342, "typical_volume": 5126.25, "trend": 114.915113, "fair_value": 97.268009, "relative_strength": -7.197493, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.841819, "energy": 8.649346, "activity_lines": [ 113.198001, 112.375239, 114.080559, 114.925447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.809998, "volume": 8885, "typical_volume": 5516.65, "trend": 114.989617, "fair_value": 97.440953, "relative_strength": -4.097744, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.787354, "energy": 17.098338, "activity_lines": [ 113.280667, 112.454939, 113.795729, 114.789633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.150002, "volume": 6321, "typical_volume": 5587.75, "trend": 115.062006, "fair_value": 97.649186, "relative_strength": -2.919989, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.707862, "energy": 15.195403, "activity_lines": [ 113.549334, 112.788376, 113.670804, 114.735464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.669998, "volume": 3178, "typical_volume": 5471.15, "trend": 115.146133, "fair_value": 97.850185, "relative_strength": -7.70931, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.345303, "energy": 25.451454, "activity_lines": [ 112.543333, 112.552455, 113.241879, 114.452109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.900002, "volume": 37958, "typical_volume": 7275.15, "trend": 115.186036, "fair_value": 98.031188, "relative_strength": -6.9238, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.237542, "energy": 44.478566, "activity_lines": [ 110.829334, 111.803637, 112.60824, 113.984617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }