{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b4040b2-3c13-4d81-a9c0-c7fc5f08202d", "symbol": "359210", "name": "Samsung Kodex Kospi Total Return ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.981, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.276, "architecture_energy": 29.38, "architecture_maturity": 57.17, "architecture_confidence": 89.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.65, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 43.14, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 53.47, "downward_expansion": 39.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 34348.0, 37259.636364, 38312.214286, 36678.483871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32585.0, "trend_reference": 34099.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.044419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18001.025641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.810175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.079523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.240861, "excess_performance": 0.011032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.810175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.659307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010795, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.240861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613629, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295559, "relative_activity": 1.347231, "balance": 0.613629, "dry_up": 1.693584, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143034, "annualized_volatility": 0.465101, "from_high_reference": -0.329389, "from_low_reference": 1.076139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34099.666667, "fair_value_reference": 18001.025641, "structural_low": 26085.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015607, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277915, "worst_return": -0.015077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035115, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003391, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.279395, "worst_return": -0.059748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092561, "worst_return": 0.037846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053832, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080697, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 18001.025641, "relative_strength": 1.079523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.276495, "energy": 29.380466, "activity_lines": [ 34348.0, 37259.636364, 38312.214286, 36678.483871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }