{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b44a0d7-922a-4289-b8ba-1084ea4fd6f5", "symbol": "5468", "name": "TM Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.212, "architecture_energy": 30.719, "architecture_maturity": 66.69, "architecture_confidence": 94.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 33.82, "upward_expansion": 60.43, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 25.09, "downward_expansion": 15.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.476666, 26.980909, 24.649762, 22.905699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.35, "trend_reference": 20.981666, "distance_from_trend": 0.446501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.693288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.541134, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.493257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.709859, "excess_performance": 0.268487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.446501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.541134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.614595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124933, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.458972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.709859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.722529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4607696, "relative_activity": 2.48947, "balance": 1.722529, "dry_up": 1.069662, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159422, "annualized_volatility": 0.785704, "from_high_reference": -0.168493, "from_low_reference": 1.078767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.981666, "fair_value_reference": 19.693288, "structural_low": 15.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029167, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036425, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.258581, "worst_return": -0.247357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023872, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.424242, "worst_return": -0.315742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.063131, "worst_return": -0.175075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.108179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095607, "active": false }, { 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"direction": 66.931769, "energy": 88.033286, "activity_lines": [ 29.936666, 26.056363, 22.60119, 21.208064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.6, "volume": 2617510, "typical_volume": 1647919.55, "trend": 20.06, "fair_value": 19.472775, "relative_strength": -7.785297, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.257827, "energy": 67.448818, "activity_lines": [ 28.213333, 26.124545, 22.896904, 21.445591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.299999, "volume": 1476252, "typical_volume": 1701576.2, "trend": 20.238333, "fair_value": 19.517647, "relative_strength": -6.640962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.574745, "energy": 47.50765, "activity_lines": [ 26.6, 26.214545, 23.230238, 21.71914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0, "volume": 966173, "typical_volume": 1736132.25, "trend": 20.405, "fair_value": 19.559313, "relative_strength": -6.112002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.364863, "energy": 23.923404, "activity_lines": [ 25.266666, 26.129091, 23.496428, 21.961828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.299999, "volume": 869118, "typical_volume": 1673781.25, "trend": 20.615, "fair_value": 19.608993, "relative_strength": -3.046378, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.777929, "energy": 25.258508, "activity_lines": [ 24.753333, 26.16909, 23.846904, 22.277634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 30.35, "volume": 4607696, "typical_volume": 1850873.95, "trend": 20.981666, "fair_value": 19.693288, "relative_strength": 12.493257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.212454, "energy": 30.719434, "activity_lines": [ 26.476666, 26.980909, 24.649762, 22.905699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }