{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b4da0fd-19d9-4c76-b84f-f5a489ececb3", "symbol": "8906", "name": "Forward Graphic Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 94.095, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.198, "architecture_energy": 24.323, "architecture_maturity": 18.391, "architecture_confidence": 72.159, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.91, "rotation_up": 16.31, "upward_expansion": 10.19, "deceleration": 54.76, "rotation_down": 49.97, "downward_expansion": 66.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.719999, 27.286363, 26.999047, 27.59215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.799999, "trend_reference": 29.146667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046203, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.643447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.561363, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181149, "excess_performance": -0.622521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092791, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.375614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.481898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216277, "relative_activity": 0.664061, "balance": 2.481898, "dry_up": 0.410253, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092003, "annualized_volatility": 0.432871, "from_high_reference": -0.328502, "from_low_reference": 0.232816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.146667, "fair_value_reference": 30.643447, "structural_low": 22.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.006873, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.035706, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.191126, "worst_return": -0.075758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094122, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035209, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.271478, "worst_return": -0.036269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036549, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070128, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.748503, 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"down", "direction": -25.539808, "energy": 28.098948, "activity_lines": [ 28.406667, 26.934545, 27.43119, 29.035699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.450001, "volume": 379000, "typical_volume": 335708.4, "trend": 30.848334, "fair_value": 30.190517, "relative_strength": -41.308851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.948016, "energy": 23.832616, "activity_lines": [ 29.123334, 27.520909, 27.50119, 28.943871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.549999, "volume": 135264, "typical_volume": 335671.6, "trend": 30.793333, "fair_value": 30.272366, "relative_strength": -40.273299, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.218923, "energy": 22.977023, "activity_lines": [ 29.18, 27.903636, 27.506905, 28.795591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 186125, "typical_volume": 338271.95, "trend": 30.64, "fair_value": 30.341573, "relative_strength": -40.719213, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.437739, "energy": 15.121128, "activity_lines": [ 28.183334, 27.776364, 27.319286, 28.499247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 76000, "typical_volume": 334821.95, "trend": 30.333333, "fair_value": 30.416267, "relative_strength": -40.90859, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.296585, "energy": 20.967273, "activity_lines": [ 27.306667, 27.654545, 27.178333, 28.219247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6, "volume": 148182, "typical_volume": 333731.05, "trend": 29.886667, "fair_value": 30.48708, "relative_strength": -40.805541, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.534515, "energy": 32.997313, "activity_lines": [ 26.556667, 27.362727, 26.996429, 27.913871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 94000, "typical_volume": 325275.3, "trend": 29.45, "fair_value": 30.562166, "relative_strength": -39.187215, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.350068, "energy": 33.310711, "activity_lines": [ 26.333333, 27.233636, 26.929762, 27.698602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 216277, "typical_volume": 325688.6, "trend": 29.146667, "fair_value": 30.643447, "relative_strength": -37.561363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.197915, "energy": 24.323346, "activity_lines": [ 26.719999, 27.286363, 26.999047, 27.59215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }