{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b4f5871-c5c7-4863-8369-c3ce9fc4b06e", "symbol": "SMH3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Semiconductors ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.963, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.516, "architecture_energy": 24.453, "architecture_maturity": 60.601, "architecture_confidence": 70.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.59, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 42.92, "deceleration": 87.73, "rotation_down": 47.57, "downward_expansion": 36.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.837334, 22.512727, 23.829649, 21.429723 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.637501, "trend_reference": 18.151208, "distance_from_trend": 0.026791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.228942, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.578178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 30.233304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.807273, "excess_performance": 0.756038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026791, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.466596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.578178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.143357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.302333, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.668092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.807273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465092, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39212, "relative_activity": 1.738625, "balance": 0.465092, "dry_up": 1.539964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.330933, "annualized_volatility": 1.178709, "from_high_reference": -0.487981, "from_low_reference": 3.242545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.151208, "fair_value_reference": 7.228942, "structural_low": 7.2925, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.251495, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.25384, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.68671, "worst_return": -0.155392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.179415, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.15903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.955261, "worst_return": -0.162373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.345919, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.295814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.29391, "worst_return": 0.197745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.407891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.463793, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 28.441333, 28.791454, 24.588827, 21.027016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.5, "volume": 12841, "typical_volume": 18168.65, "trend": 17.264917, "fair_value": 6.928456, "relative_strength": 69.984471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.031021, "energy": 25.309873, "activity_lines": [ 26.051333, 27.738818, 24.811714, 21.396559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.7775, "volume": 21485, "typical_volume": 18055.15, "trend": 17.68425, "fair_value": 7.045914, "relative_strength": 51.694039, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.97942, "energy": 24.639743, "activity_lines": [ 23.659167, 26.415455, 24.814375, 21.623177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.905, "volume": 65388, "typical_volume": 20761.15, "trend": 17.856792, "fair_value": 7.121188, "relative_strength": -0.867867, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.465518, "energy": 26.032935, "activity_lines": [ 19.978, 23.913591, 24.10819, 21.379355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.637501, "volume": 39212, "typical_volume": 22553.45, "trend": 18.151208, "fair_value": 7.228942, "relative_strength": 30.233304, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.515889, "energy": 24.453498, "activity_lines": [ 18.837334, 22.512727, 23.829649, 21.429723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }