{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60", "symbol": "ASTL", "name": "Algoma Steel Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.992, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.316, "architecture_energy": 33.2, "architecture_maturity": 22.421, "architecture_confidence": 85.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.56, "rotation_up": 15.77, "upward_expansion": 3.47, "deceleration": 56.11, "rotation_down": 54.67, "downward_expansion": 76.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.605333, 5.698727, 6.108143, 6.126731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.68, "trend_reference": 6.146667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.109706, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.995729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098413, "excess_performance": -0.218834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018222, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098413, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3212500, "relative_activity": 1.552375, "balance": 1.497102, "dry_up": 1.438321, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144434, "annualized_volatility": 0.662411, "from_high_reference": -0.285535, "from_low_reference": 0.352381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.146667, "fair_value_reference": 9.109706, "structural_low": 4.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.114608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.05814, "worst_return": -0.171076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.442398, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.407489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.442398, "worst_return": -0.442398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.188072, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.277672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.188072, "worst_return": -0.188072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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-19.264023, "energy": 25.524278, "activity_lines": [ 6.073333, 6.484545, 6.431524, 6.330774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.13, "volume": 2401700, "typical_volume": 2285540.0, "trend": 6.163333, "fair_value": 9.196023, "relative_strength": -25.788158, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.935574, "energy": 41.259791, "activity_lines": [ 5.672, 6.203455, 6.32081, 6.261763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.36, "volume": 1975000, "typical_volume": 2235760.0, "trend": 6.141667, "fair_value": 9.172744, "relative_strength": -20.812775, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.399699, "energy": 56.686937, "activity_lines": [ 5.468, 5.990182, 6.23981, 6.209935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.09, "volume": 3072300, "typical_volume": 2210650.0, "trend": 6.154, "fair_value": 9.153109, "relative_strength": -9.03736, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.944195, "energy": 46.147642, "activity_lines": [ 5.616, 5.940182, 6.232571, 6.206602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.39, "volume": 3646100, "typical_volume": 2117250.0, "trend": 6.154, "fair_value": 9.130447, "relative_strength": -18.257649, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.342111, "energy": 38.932772, "activity_lines": [ 5.544, 5.782727, 6.158095, 6.157312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.68, "volume": 3212500, "typical_volume": 2069410.0, "trend": 6.146667, "fair_value": 9.109706, "relative_strength": -15.995729, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.316259, "energy": 33.200047, "activity_lines": [ 5.605333, 5.698727, 6.108143, 6.126731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }