{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1b65a01b-8c0a-4764-aeac-157cdff36233",
    "symbol": "VHP",
    "name": "Vital Healthcare Property Trust",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 63.048,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 30.414,
    "architecture_energy": 17.019,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.253,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.803,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 62.29,
        "rotation_up": 22.63,
        "upward_expansion": 51.29,
        "deceleration": 90.87,
        "rotation_down": 26.71,
        "downward_expansion": 17.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.899,
        1.908545,
        1.893665,
        1.885405
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 1.9,
    "trend_reference": 1.885009,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.007953,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.844792,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029926,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.380046,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -9.3e-05,
    "excess_performance": -0.028367,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007953,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002952,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029926,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042905,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0538,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002014,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -9.3e-05,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.233604,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2268687,
      "relative_activity": 0.94413,
      "balance": 2.233604,
      "dry_up": 1.011838,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.137131,
      "from_high_reference": -0.167193,
      "from_low_reference": 0.10029
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.885009,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.844792,
      "structural_low": 1.726817,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.024499,
        "positive_rate": 0.277778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.277778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015785,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.081301,
        "worst_return": -0.106977,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.027467,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.3,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024296,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.051338,
        "worst_return": -0.144816,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.016657,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025978,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.125701,
        "worst_return": -0.232228,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.081803,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006688,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.130701,
        "worst_return": -0.114489,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034947,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.071454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.073446,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.079786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.148946,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025906,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002293,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037037,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005236,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "direction": 32.282479,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 252457,
        "typical_volume": 3794385.8,
        "trend": 1.888605,
        "fair_value": 1.849965,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.75349,
        "energy": 52.135423,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.91,
        "volume": 249891,
        "typical_volume": 3675665.15,
        "trend": 1.891206,
        "fair_value": 1.849234,
        "relative_strength": -4.081584,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3527034.45,
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        "fair_value": 1.848314,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.571331,
        "energy": 46.08306,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1803497,
        "typical_volume": 3417890.2,
        "trend": 1.888924,
        "fair_value": 1.847178,
        "relative_strength": -5.318519,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.915084,
        "energy": 19.273158,
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          1.913333,
          1.911108,
          1.885477,
          1.883062
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.91,
        "volume": 3059755,
        "typical_volume": 3320533.15,
        "trend": 1.888277,
        "fair_value": 1.846281,
        "relative_strength": -4.77568,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 10.282246,
        "energy": 9.116027,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.908333,
          1.913818,
          1.889224,
          1.884421
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.89,
        "volume": 2593606,
        "typical_volume": 3283686.55,
        "trend": 1.886476,
        "fair_value": 1.845532,
        "relative_strength": -5.126533,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.199699,
        "energy": 7.982377,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.9,
          1.910727,
          1.891016,
          1.884533
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.9,
        "volume": 2268687,
        "typical_volume": 2402939.95,
        "trend": 1.885009,
        "fair_value": 1.844792,
        "relative_strength": -5.380046,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.414265,
        "energy": 17.018751,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.899,
          1.908545,
          1.893665,
          1.885405
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}