{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b6e88e1-968e-4291-8a2d-266ff092f09f", "symbol": "603600", "name": "UE Furniture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.085, "architecture_energy": 40.782, "architecture_maturity": 56.978, "architecture_confidence": 62.102, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.63, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 17.29, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 45.58, "downward_expansion": 67.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.348, 9.340364, 9.847127, 10.159598 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.53, "trend_reference": 10.613822, "distance_from_trend": -0.102114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.419283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.822282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204508, "excess_performance": -0.161304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076563, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08535, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112467, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24288222, "relative_activity": 1.201324, "balance": 0.487281, "dry_up": 1.149069, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069063, "annualized_volatility": 0.288846, "from_high_reference": -0.280755, "from_low_reference": 0.081725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.613822, "fair_value_reference": 10.419283, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.020302, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.011283, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.229969, "worst_return": -0.143092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0472, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.058748, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.312939, "worst_return": -0.107784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133577, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.138674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.397144, "worst_return": 0.070482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.3, "volume": 22429180, "typical_volume": 18976859.8, "trend": 10.897155, "fair_value": 10.409932, "relative_strength": -12.024452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.040972, "energy": 74.320217, "activity_lines": [ 9.267333, 9.567886, 10.127908, 10.444854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.91, "volume": 24713300, "typical_volume": 19124208.7, "trend": 10.782488, "fair_value": 10.410481, "relative_strength": -16.438811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.617689, "energy": 60.54121, "activity_lines": [ 9.15, 9.372761, 9.986457, 10.31665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.51, "volume": 21496260, "typical_volume": 19553365.45, "trend": 10.691822, "fair_value": 10.415284, "relative_strength": -10.893342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.983743, "energy": 51.293288, "activity_lines": [ 9.26, 9.338182, 9.912387, 10.234554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.53, "volume": 24288222, "typical_volume": 20217880.7, "trend": 10.613822, "fair_value": 10.419283, "relative_strength": -12.822282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.08546, "energy": 40.782254, "activity_lines": [ 9.348, 9.340364, 9.847127, 10.159598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }