{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b71ea82-d971-4b77-a521-32894b1da052", "symbol": "TASA3", "name": "Taurus Armas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.843, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.22, "architecture_energy": 10.057, "architecture_maturity": 18.141, "architecture_confidence": 59.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.72, "rotation_up": 25.82, "upward_expansion": 18.31, "deceleration": 52.11, "rotation_down": 30.88, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.132667, 5.138727, 5.086102, 5.132244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 5.215664, "distance_from_trend": -0.024094, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.414513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395093, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.384964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058566, "excess_performance": -0.001518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024094, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -5.4e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042591, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34500, "relative_activity": 0.774585, "balance": 0.571114, "dry_up": 0.818366, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069669, "annualized_volatility": 0.37971, "from_high_reference": -0.156762, "from_low_reference": 0.128603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.215664, "fair_value_reference": 8.414513, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013816, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003056, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.152367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.036901, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.074518, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.048261, "worst_return": -0.198267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116605, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084408, "worst_return": -0.345209, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.566866, "energy": 17.944187, "activity_lines": [ 5.193333, 5.079273, 5.087919, 5.155572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.26, "volume": 37700, "typical_volume": 62315.0, "trend": 5.221679, "fair_value": 8.568197, "relative_strength": -6.841095, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.283152, "energy": 19.398461, "activity_lines": [ 5.245333, 5.123455, 5.095966, 5.158739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0, "volume": 45900, "typical_volume": 52135.0, "trend": 5.222448, "fair_value": 8.518178, "relative_strength": -10.67066, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.54257, "energy": 11.538336, "activity_lines": [ 5.164, 5.117455, 5.081758, 5.144438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.17, "volume": 27700, "typical_volume": 46255.0, "trend": 5.226552, "fair_value": 8.464506, "relative_strength": -8.601763, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.164599, "energy": 9.325754, "activity_lines": [ 5.156, 5.139818, 5.087343, 5.141054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 34500, "typical_volume": 44540.0, "trend": 5.215664, "fair_value": 8.414513, "relative_strength": -6.384964, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.220423, "energy": 10.056787, "activity_lines": [ 5.132667, 5.138727, 5.086102, 5.132244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }