{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b73250f-21fe-40b9-82cb-214329fbd654", "symbol": "Y8E", "name": "Samurai 2K Aerosol Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.222, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.051, "architecture_energy": 74.272, "architecture_maturity": 10.98, "architecture_confidence": 78.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.06, "rotation_up": 8.77, "upward_expansion": 17.15, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 70.7, "downward_expansion": 88.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.11765, 0.120995, 0.125032, 0.126645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.127967, "distance_from_trend": -0.062256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.105737, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.492892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069767, "excess_performance": -0.224603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.705263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114000, "relative_activity": 1.033779, "balance": 4.705263, "dry_up": 2.288597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0552, "annualized_volatility": 0.498334, "from_high_reference": -0.15493, "from_low_reference": 0.524933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.127967, "fair_value_reference": 0.105737, "structural_low": 0.098208, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.023625, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.523796, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.010099, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.055517, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.343292, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104407, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.343292, "worst_return": -0.277272, 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0.130457, 0.128983 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.129, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 72775.0, "trend": 0.1257, "fair_value": 0.106141, "relative_strength": 2.180129, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.033134, "energy": 24.127159, "activity_lines": [ 0.1272, 0.129655, 0.130338, 0.129249 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.129, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68775.0, "trend": 0.126433, "fair_value": 0.106085, "relative_strength": 1.91506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.988591, "energy": 21.786303, "activity_lines": [ 0.1274, 0.129327, 0.130214, 0.129462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.127671, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67525.0, "trend": 0.127222, "fair_value": 0.106038, "relative_strength": -0.403053, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.443534, "energy": 17.049138, "activity_lines": [ 0.127557, 0.128777, 0.129964, 0.129542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.127671, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67525.0, "trend": 0.128011, "fair_value": 0.105979, "relative_strength": -4.542658, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.807895, "energy": 9.873564, "activity_lines": [ 0.127869, 0.128268, 0.12972, 0.129571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.127671, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 63645.0, "trend": 0.1288, "fair_value": 0.105969, "relative_strength": -5.30859, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.435969, "energy": 17.317449, "activity_lines": [ 0.127937, 0.127911, 0.129482, 0.129549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.098208, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 63695.0, "trend": 0.128074, "fair_value": 0.105771, "relative_strength": -27.934313, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.119013, "energy": 93.715845, "activity_lines": [ 0.117939, 0.122331, 0.126449, 0.127575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.121778, "volume": 894000, "typical_volume": 106475.0, "trend": 0.128133, "fair_value": 0.105759, "relative_strength": -11.189299, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.145704, "energy": 74.753833, "activity_lines": [ 0.11785, 0.121704, 0.125813, 0.127169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 114000, "typical_volume": 110275.0, "trend": 0.127967, "fair_value": 0.105737, "relative_strength": -13.492892, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.051458, "energy": 74.27229, "activity_lines": [ 0.11765, 0.120995, 0.125032, 0.126645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }