{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b784575-0970-4001-b3fe-566c9d387622", "symbol": "ONCY", "name": "Oncolytics Biotech Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.888, "architecture_energy": 51.779, "architecture_maturity": 13.603, "architecture_confidence": 95.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.09, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 10.65, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 65.84, "downward_expansion": 88.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.803747, 0.840147, 0.870815, 0.898111 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.8025, "trend_reference": 0.938637, "distance_from_trend": -0.145037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.063087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.908766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094142, "excess_performance": -0.281595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.245699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2884000, "relative_activity": 0.467262, "balance": 0.245699, "dry_up": 1.139501, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18704, "annualized_volatility": 0.832691, "from_high_reference": -0.468543, "from_low_reference": 0.099164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.938637, "fair_value_reference": 1.063087, "structural_low": 0.7301, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.0447, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.056373, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 1.555278, "worst_return": -0.306626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.016953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003153, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.924789, "worst_return": -0.405482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.155149, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.158936, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.471545, "worst_return": -0.343373, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070313, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", 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0.898995, 0.914655, 0.93636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8533, "volume": 13022661, "typical_volume": 6090182.05, "trend": 0.956483, "fair_value": 1.093485, "relative_strength": -25.18689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.700602, "energy": 20.584211, "activity_lines": [ 0.89124, 0.891907, 0.906411, 0.929366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8122, "volume": 7670874, "typical_volume": 6204923.2, "trend": 0.951823, "fair_value": 1.080678, "relative_strength": -27.059008, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.566089, "energy": 32.74676, "activity_lines": [ 0.858807, 0.878013, 0.89557, 0.920058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7533, "volume": 4555059, "typical_volume": 6164293.3, "trend": 0.944143, "fair_value": 1.070956, "relative_strength": -32.157929, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.976894, "energy": 51.126449, "activity_lines": [ 0.816593, 0.854096, 0.8803, 0.90725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8025, "volume": 2884000, "typical_volume": 6172131.85, "trend": 0.938637, "fair_value": 1.063087, "relative_strength": -30.908766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.887544, "energy": 51.778514, "activity_lines": [ 0.803747, 0.840147, 0.870815, 0.898111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }