{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b8026eb-c648-4788-a572-31ed161292c9", "symbol": "002403", "name": "Aishida Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.931, "architecture_energy": 46.385, "architecture_maturity": 80.673, "architecture_confidence": 90.028, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.84, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 6.76, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 55.55, "downward_expansion": 75.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.021333, 9.234727, 9.794238, 10.163613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.6, "trend_reference": 10.767333, "distance_from_trend": -0.108414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.14887, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.950967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207267, "excess_performance": -0.214666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051299, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516963, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26682920, "relative_activity": 1.065262, "balance": 0.516963, "dry_up": 1.402941, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130128, "annualized_volatility": 0.573876, "from_high_reference": -0.477124, "from_low_reference": 0.25163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.767333, "fair_value_reference": 11.14887, "structural_low": 7.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005869, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000255, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.234354, "worst_return": -0.152766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010378, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.415385, "worst_return": -0.249748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060206, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072048, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.611446, "worst_return": -0.331319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.264792, "energy": 51.669131, "activity_lines": [ 8.899333, 9.339636, 9.962857, 10.365312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.12, "volume": 40485201, "typical_volume": 24571809.8, "trend": 10.869333, "fair_value": 11.142393, "relative_strength": -25.803197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.660464, "energy": 48.885045, "activity_lines": [ 8.902667, 9.222909, 9.850143, 10.245505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6, "volume": 26682920, "typical_volume": 25048224.35, "trend": 10.767333, "fair_value": 11.14887, "relative_strength": -24.950967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.930746, "energy": 46.384582, "activity_lines": [ 9.021333, 9.234727, 9.794238, 10.163613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }