{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b812f0f-5f18-4bae-a3e1-4127ef64a5a8", "symbol": "TPW", "name": "Temple & Webster Group Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.446, "architecture_energy": 26.12, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.185, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.49, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 15.95, "deceleration": 63.86, "rotation_down": 35.32, "downward_expansion": 61.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.545333, 5.531455, 5.534524, 5.956882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.05, "trend_reference": 7.021333, "distance_from_trend": -0.13834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.581859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.519149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -54.117449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.454955, "excess_performance": -0.518661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.519149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010489, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.541174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4354278, "relative_activity": 0.941193, "balance": 0.980753, "dry_up": 0.79222, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123077, "annualized_volatility": 0.840471, "from_high_reference": -0.79181, "from_low_reference": 0.335541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.021333, "fair_value_reference": 12.581859, "structural_low": 4.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.018171, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.035799, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.574405, "worst_return": -0.314414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.247143, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.268832, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.655689, "worst_return": -0.474016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.434211, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.39171, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.087977, "worst_return": -0.628062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29.219279, "activity_lines": [ 5.687333, 5.496182, 5.731048, 6.537441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.16, "volume": 2929881, "typical_volume": 4856155.8, "trend": 7.82, "fair_value": 12.605064, "relative_strength": -62.155132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.056132, "energy": 35.57736, "activity_lines": [ 5.524, 5.449636, 5.63781, 6.347763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 3258822, "typical_volume": 4765523.55, "trend": 7.521, "fair_value": 12.594551, "relative_strength": -62.789018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.844855, "energy": 50.322395, "activity_lines": [ 5.291333, 5.375273, 5.537333, 6.161312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.55, "volume": 4117337, "typical_volume": 4706742.1, "trend": 7.247667, "fair_value": 12.586731, "relative_strength": -57.874414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.7983, "energy": 40.837723, "activity_lines": [ 5.314667, 5.412545, 5.508667, 6.034151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.05, "volume": 4354278, "typical_volume": 4626338.75, "trend": 7.021333, "fair_value": 12.581859, "relative_strength": -54.117449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.446485, "energy": 26.120097, "activity_lines": [ 5.545333, 5.531455, 5.534524, 5.956882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }