{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b8988b2-9cec-48ea-a269-7b0660179035", "symbol": "DK12", "name": "Deka STOXX Europe Strong Growth 20 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.166, "architecture_energy": 16.129, "architecture_maturity": 12.702, "architecture_confidence": 69.312, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.12, "rotation_up": 26.28, "upward_expansion": 44.8, "deceleration": 76.1, "rotation_down": 39.71, "downward_expansion": 36.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.060333, 47.374545, 47.639929, 47.271269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.314999, "trend_reference": 46.971833, "distance_from_trend": 0.028595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.641763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.882601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057684, "excess_performance": -0.116563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.93426, "dry_up": 1.173576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040002, "annualized_volatility": 0.248515, "from_high_reference": -0.039081, "from_low_reference": 0.217616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.971833, "fair_value_reference": 45.641763, "structural_low": 42.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013566, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.018904, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.117234, "worst_return": -0.090376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010472, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.123166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155982, "worst_return": -0.080795, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036299, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053769, "worst_return": 0.018828, "sufficient": 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"up", "direction": 63.593743, "energy": 35.718218, "activity_lines": [ 48.438, 48.390636, 47.679738, 47.199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.095001, "volume": 632, "typical_volume": 1393.5, "trend": 46.587167, "fair_value": 45.638494, "relative_strength": -14.716612, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.222524, "energy": 18.145536, "activity_lines": [ 48.022334, 48.184273, 47.689095, 47.241538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1260.15, "trend": 46.713333, "fair_value": 45.637051, "relative_strength": -13.666678, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.411806, "energy": 14.989878, "activity_lines": [ 47.438, 47.875182, 47.643524, 47.234624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.665001, "volume": 3160, "typical_volume": 1116.95, "trend": 46.844333, "fair_value": 45.629583, "relative_strength": -14.060069, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.984504, "energy": 13.025106, "activity_lines": [ 47.064334, 47.625637, 47.618214, 47.231505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.07, "volume": 1896, "typical_volume": 1211.75, "trend": 46.924333, "fair_value": 45.627468, "relative_strength": -14.75899, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.402566, "energy": 23.659428, "activity_lines": [ 46.668, 47.267182, 47.524952, 47.181548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.314999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1077.05, "trend": 46.971833, "fair_value": 45.641763, "relative_strength": -12.882601, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.165925, "energy": 16.128875, "activity_lines": [ 47.060333, 47.374545, 47.639929, 47.271269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }