{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b8a1919-1ffc-4890-8a4b-76b3cb8f6a83", "symbol": "688066", "name": "Piesat Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.105, "architecture_energy": 77.991, "architecture_maturity": 65.568, "architecture_confidence": 89.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 17.85, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 64.78, "downward_expansion": 91.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.809333, 9.844364, 11.612048, 14.127763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.69, "trend_reference": 18.993, "distance_from_trend": -0.489812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.68859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.743246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.728495, "excess_performance": -0.685292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.489812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230648, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.587432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.728495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.284281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64258775, "relative_activity": 1.451623, "balance": 2.284281, "dry_up": 0.938181, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221402, "annualized_volatility": 1.004956, "from_high_reference": -0.805422, "from_low_reference": 0.420821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.993, "fair_value_reference": 25.68859, "structural_low": 6.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.032242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03055, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.474565, "worst_return": -0.392354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.134114, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.16801, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.357373, "worst_return": -0.446453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.167616, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.736119, "worst_return": -0.464313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -80.002384, "energy": 68.907627, "activity_lines": [ 10.907333, 11.711455, 13.467333, 16.483226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.12, "volume": 39594039, "typical_volume": 44414211.35, "trend": 20.477333, "fair_value": 26.425385, "relative_strength": -69.343452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.78243, "energy": 78.346572, "activity_lines": [ 9.495333, 10.769636, 12.65881, 15.577613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.07, "volume": 35563161, "typical_volume": 43314756.8, "trend": 19.755333, "fair_value": 26.044231, "relative_strength": -65.036038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.654888, "energy": 84.648865, "activity_lines": [ 8.802667, 10.111636, 12.02481, 14.77714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.69, "volume": 64258775, "typical_volume": 44266833.4, "trend": 18.993, "fair_value": 25.68859, "relative_strength": -58.743246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.105098, "energy": 77.990933, "activity_lines": [ 8.809333, 9.844364, 11.612048, 14.127763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }