{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b950463-8829-43f2-81d7-3ce983fdc8aa", "symbol": "FROG", "name": "Jfrog\u00a0Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.564, "architecture_energy": 37.282, "architecture_maturity": 74.05, "architecture_confidence": 86.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.99, "rotation_up": 39.17, "upward_expansion": 67.49, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 17.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.004, 86.014909, 79.747357, 71.789473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 89.52, "trend_reference": 63.1275, "distance_from_trend": 0.418082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.473077, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.107688, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.254016, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.865389, "excess_performance": 0.677935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.418082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138222, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.107688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.33254, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.865389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.486628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13341328, "relative_activity": 0.979749, "balance": 1.486628, "dry_up": 0.849742, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123961, "annualized_volatility": 0.829756, "from_high_reference": -0.097763, "from_low_reference": 1.629075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.1275, "fair_value_reference": 42.473077, "structural_low": 34.05, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.066679, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023582, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.261174, "worst_return": -0.353928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.098132, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003321, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.5972, "worst_return": -0.089599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.483715, "worst_return": -0.17259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.353928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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41.042051, "relative_strength": 39.905785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.955646, "energy": 73.143941, "activity_lines": [ 89.257333, 84.901273, 72.585119, 65.779043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.54, "volume": 9318093, "typical_volume": 14107621.5, "trend": 61.004167, "fair_value": 41.424103, "relative_strength": 40.869833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.120189, "energy": 63.498119, "activity_lines": [ 89.864667, 86.312727, 75.073333, 67.60228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.16, "volume": 11328461, "typical_volume": 13722971.35, "trend": 61.445167, "fair_value": 41.747821, "relative_strength": 28.41648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.414401, "energy": 53.475647, "activity_lines": [ 86.958667, 85.873455, 76.533024, 68.83814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.79, "volume": 12296172, "typical_volume": 13841059.85, "trend": 62.119167, "fair_value": 42.069423, "relative_strength": 26.061898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.129434, "energy": 37.351376, "activity_lines": [ 84.1, 85.112364, 77.769048, 70.021677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.52, "volume": 13341328, "typical_volume": 13617084.9, "trend": 63.1275, "fair_value": 42.473077, "relative_strength": 33.254016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.56371, "energy": 37.282372, "activity_lines": [ 85.004, 86.014909, 79.747357, 71.789473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }