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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.437, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.693, "architecture_energy": 40.812, "architecture_maturity": 17.008, "architecture_confidence": 90.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 7.14, "deceleration": 42.66, "rotation_down": 51.5, "downward_expansion": 78.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.184001, 89.353455, 89.684762, 90.244646 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 90.010002, "trend_reference": 91.159, "distance_from_trend": -0.012604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.338141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.53363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021737, "excess_performance": -0.142158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.184044, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63500, "relative_activity": 2.907509, "balance": 1.184044, "dry_up": 2.084478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022433, "annualized_volatility": 0.15663, "from_high_reference": -0.090349, "from_low_reference": 0.118137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.159, "fair_value_reference": 76.338141, "structural_low": 86.400002, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.154979, "energy": 15.690482, "activity_lines": [ 90.132667, 89.947455, 90.240905, 90.80471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.110001, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 17830.0, "trend": 91.007667, "fair_value": 75.793205, "relative_strength": -9.554658, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.196784, "energy": 24.553021, "activity_lines": [ 89.570667, 89.587091, 89.989334, 90.618861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.709999, "volume": 41700, "typical_volume": 18715.0, "trend": 91.018, "fair_value": 75.964487, "relative_strength": -9.914244, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.439086, "energy": 39.178011, "activity_lines": [ 88.887333, 89.202364, 89.736524, 90.406108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.610001, "volume": 37600, "typical_volume": 19950.0, "trend": 91.104667, "fair_value": 76.148333, "relative_strength": -7.296406, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.55558, "energy": 44.464661, "activity_lines": [ 88.923333, 89.223273, 89.687334, 90.315269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.010002, "volume": 63500, "typical_volume": 21840.0, "trend": 91.159, "fair_value": 76.338141, "relative_strength": -9.53363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.693081, "energy": 40.811561, "activity_lines": [ 89.184001, 89.353455, 89.684762, 90.244646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }