{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b99bbd5-c1f8-4842-88a4-705d029ba862", "symbol": "002309", "name": "Jiangsu Zhongli Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.14, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.477, "architecture_energy": 32.617, "architecture_maturity": 50.266, "architecture_confidence": 82.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.34, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 16.9, "deceleration": 45.92, "rotation_down": 37.21, "downward_expansion": 66.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.016667, 2.934727, 3.272381, 3.438667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.25, "trend_reference": 3.504667, "distance_from_trend": -0.072665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.852692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.107185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101695, "excess_performance": 0.094295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.752979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1021205555, "relative_activity": 0.739234, "balance": 1.752979, "dry_up": 0.862973, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132071, "annualized_volatility": 0.609854, "from_high_reference": -0.401473, "from_low_reference": 0.382979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.504667, "fair_value_reference": 2.852692, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.00216, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.017151, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.32294, "worst_return": -0.371528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028172, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.028322, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220859, "worst_return": -0.416058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.093182, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067899, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.441718, "worst_return": -0.405109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.219331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"down", "direction": -77.48821, "energy": 84.201428, "activity_lines": [ 2.773333, 3.092909, 3.547238, 3.586731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.64, "volume": 984615833, "typical_volume": 1315196991.9, "trend": 3.544, "fair_value": 2.869744, "relative_strength": -22.507696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.542788, "energy": 81.137437, "activity_lines": [ 2.696667, 2.947091, 3.442095, 3.525484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.78, "volume": 1312491889, "typical_volume": 1338813689.6, "trend": 3.522333, "fair_value": 2.862436, "relative_strength": -18.174926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.572991, "energy": 75.028487, "activity_lines": [ 2.701333, 2.862545, 3.354619, 3.476194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 1450254505, "typical_volume": 1375876015.05, "trend": 3.509333, "fair_value": 2.857372, "relative_strength": -4.067899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.268343, "energy": 48.520273, "activity_lines": [ 2.864667, 2.888364, 3.310476, 3.455398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.25, "volume": 1021205555, "typical_volume": 1381436610.2, "trend": 3.504667, "fair_value": 2.852692, "relative_strength": -7.107185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.47661, "energy": 32.616828, "activity_lines": [ 3.016667, 2.934727, 3.272381, 3.438667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }