{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1b9d8f0e-b7d0-4c8a-8eac-aeac97299ea9", "symbol": "SMHI", "name": "SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.53, "architecture_energy": 79.776, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.844, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.04, "rotation_up": 82.73, "upward_expansion": 94.86, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 8.73, "downward_expansion": 16.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.862667, 8.302182, 7.878857, 7.711226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.52, "trend_reference": 7.474667, "distance_from_trend": 0.273635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.791923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.307301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.329609, "excess_performance": 0.203984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.273635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.258746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.203073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.329609, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.278004, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 547182, "relative_activity": 1.03185, "balance": 5.278004, "dry_up": 1.290375, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093622, "annualized_volatility": 0.42721, "from_high_reference": -0.02359, "from_low_reference": 0.715315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.474667, "fair_value_reference": 8.791923, "structural_low": 6.302, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.022115, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.019304, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.441683, "worst_return": -0.334895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011261, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06185, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229446, "worst_return": -0.369298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090972, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.068936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.61435, "worst_return": -0.490949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131464, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.448137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.058994, "energy": 40.333715, "activity_lines": [ 7.686667, 7.521636, 7.442143, 7.378667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.0, "volume": 483379, "typical_volume": 505341.7, "trend": 7.246667, "fair_value": 8.823526, "relative_strength": 7.190594, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.386718, "energy": 51.067928, "activity_lines": [ 7.851333, 7.626545, 7.500095, 7.431118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.43, "volume": 1131749, "typical_volume": 532261.65, "trend": 7.361667, "fair_value": 8.806923, "relative_strength": 23.848736, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.043512, "energy": 73.826826, "activity_lines": [ 8.404667, 7.976364, 7.690952, 7.571978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.52, "volume": 547182, "typical_volume": 530292.45, "trend": 7.474667, "fair_value": 8.791923, "relative_strength": 20.307301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.530085, "energy": 79.775675, "activity_lines": [ 8.862667, 8.302182, 7.878857, 7.711226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }