{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bb156f9-9c73-4d1e-af6f-173efeb65c11", "symbol": "603580", "name": "AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.963, "architecture_energy": 93.449, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.929, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 87.71, "upward_expansion": 99.77, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 8.06, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.344667, 41.410546, 33.700333, 29.282817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 53.830002, "trend_reference": 24.202667, "distance_from_trend": 1.224135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.252855, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.949128, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 165.111288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.28432, "excess_performance": 2.327524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 1.224135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.371541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.949128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.472088, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.651113, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.21776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.28432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 25.429799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60708615, "relative_activity": 3.589899, "balance": 25.429799, "dry_up": 3.182224, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133283, "annualized_volatility": 0.898349, "from_high_reference": -0.142288, "from_low_reference": 2.993324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.202667, "fair_value_reference": 18.252855, "structural_low": 13.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01867, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.014408, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.754563, "worst_return": -0.467026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.113965, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.040816, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.317853, "worst_return": -0.318166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071078, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.51418, "worst_return": -0.247449, "sufficient": true }, { 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23.035619, 21.257849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.68, "volume": 13440530, "typical_volume": 7996746.55, "trend": 19.702, "fair_value": 17.33595, "relative_strength": 71.215401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.885444, "energy": 75.348232, "activity_lines": [ 28.092, 26.467454, 23.971809, 21.997785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.919998, "volume": 1140015, "typical_volume": 7614020.3, "trend": 20.672333, "fair_value": 17.533548, "relative_strength": 157.684312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.253731, "energy": 95.215621, "activity_lines": [ 34.099999, 29.966181, 26.185476, 23.624752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.299999, "volume": 72917351, "typical_volume": 10735732.25, "trend": 21.706666, "fair_value": 17.743103, "relative_strength": 153.762928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.281657, "energy": 96.349785, "activity_lines": [ 39.113332, 33.345454, 28.398523, 25.27815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.900002, "volume": 80491813, "typical_volume": 14517737.9, "trend": 22.951, "fair_value": 17.995157, "relative_strength": 177.768868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.504719, "energy": 95.60672, "activity_lines": [ 45.063333, 37.551091, 31.095238, 27.290623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.830002, "volume": 60708615, "typical_volume": 16910955.45, "trend": 24.202667, "fair_value": 18.252855, "relative_strength": 165.111288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.963188, "energy": 93.449175, "activity_lines": [ 49.344667, 41.410546, 33.700333, 29.282817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }