{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bb2165e-7655-46f9-bffa-0df0e5b59345", "symbol": "HIX", "name": "Western Asset High Income Fund II Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.035, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.299, "architecture_energy": 17.278, "architecture_maturity": 30.689, "architecture_confidence": 43.968, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.8, "rotation_up": 46.03, "upward_expansion": 50.24, "deceleration": 30.73, "rotation_down": 28.94, "downward_expansion": 10.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.912856, 3.906074, 3.89878, 3.89349 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.94, "trend_reference": 3.90635, "distance_from_trend": 0.008614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.58912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.063127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01261, "excess_performance": -0.138235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1816154, "relative_activity": 1.066864, "balance": 0.81265, "dry_up": 1.038427, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022264, "annualized_volatility": 0.141447, "from_high_reference": -0.044535, "from_low_reference": 0.076896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.90635, "fair_value_reference": 3.58912, "structural_low": 3.658664, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016267, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.006557, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.041057, "worst_return": -0.027326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010669, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010654, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.075423, "worst_return": -0.066632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.083614, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089737, "worst_return": 0.07629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080906, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124762, "worst_return": 0.037049, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.899917, 3.897606, 3.883633, 3.892431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.910988, "volume": 1602913, "typical_volume": 1692233.6, "trend": 3.906654, "fair_value": 3.579039, "relative_strength": -7.93027, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.18887, "energy": 6.718641, "activity_lines": [ 3.90446, 3.901635, 3.887364, 3.8929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.91, "volume": 1745350, "typical_volume": 1697651.7, "trend": 3.908017, "fair_value": 3.582646, "relative_strength": -7.191293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.182008, "energy": 12.60372, "activity_lines": [ 3.908683, 3.904085, 3.891511, 3.893116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 1906559, "typical_volume": 1663219.0, "trend": 3.906184, "fair_value": 3.585931, "relative_strength": -8.609929, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.356908, "energy": 6.059141, "activity_lines": [ 3.901054, 3.899521, 3.892533, 3.891308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.94, "volume": 1816154, "typical_volume": 1702329.2, "trend": 3.90635, "fair_value": 3.58912, "relative_strength": -10.063127, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.299, "energy": 17.278464, "activity_lines": [ 3.912856, 3.906074, 3.89878, 3.89349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }