{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bb4b549-a8c1-428a-a7db-c1e2969acb31", "symbol": "ORR", "name": "Oriole Resources PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.846, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.601, "architecture_energy": 16.471, "architecture_maturity": 24.76, "architecture_confidence": 80.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.81, "rotation_up": 28.99, "upward_expansion": 57.94, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 22.69, "downward_expansion": 12.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00349, 0.003528, 0.003427, 0.00335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.00345, "trend_reference": 0.003297, "distance_from_trend": 0.046512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.002703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.152565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.051235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027724, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001526, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516767, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30764072, "relative_activity": 0.399502, "balance": 0.516767, "dry_up": 0.625411, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13311, "annualized_volatility": 0.449603, "from_high_reference": -0.460938, "from_low_reference": 0.916667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003297, "fair_value_reference": 0.002703, "structural_low": 0.0026, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.112903, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.127634, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.276596, "worst_return": -0.405405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035595, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410256, "worst_return": -0.487179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.135531, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172414, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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0.003273, "fair_value": 0.002673, "relative_strength": 7.215291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.109307, "energy": 35.379487, "activity_lines": [ 0.003603, 0.003545, 0.0034, 0.003332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0034, "volume": 58454164, "typical_volume": 82103939.65, "trend": 0.00329, "fair_value": 0.002688, "relative_strength": -0.447294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.601506, "energy": 21.132914, "activity_lines": [ 0.00353, 0.003535, 0.003412, 0.00334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00345, "volume": 30764072, "typical_volume": 77006066.35, "trend": 0.003297, "fair_value": 0.002703, "relative_strength": 0.152565, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.601439, "energy": 16.470782, "activity_lines": [ 0.00349, 0.003528, 0.003427, 0.00335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }