{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1bb6bf14-ce25-423a-a3d8-461a03fb3a96",
    "symbol": "UIMD",
    "name": "UBS MSCI Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD dis",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-21",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 78.319,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.581,
    "architecture_energy": 86.211,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.408,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.052,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.81,
        "rotation_up": 80.39,
        "upward_expansion": 96.96,
        "deceleration": 41.87,
        "rotation_down": 8.18,
        "downward_expansion": 21.3
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        48.434749,
        47.778584,
        47.059457,
        46.78405
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 48.355,
    "trend_reference": 46.379404,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042596,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 39.875207,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212658,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.136258,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.033558,
    "excess_performance": -0.05322,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042596,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037954,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.212658,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011669,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021363,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012427,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033558,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 9.746795,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 9.746795,
      "dry_up": 2.345823,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01629,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.125374,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034059,
      "from_low_reference": 0.183638
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 46.379404,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.875207,
      "structural_low": 44.32,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 30,
        "median_return": -0.009358,
        "positive_rate": 0.366667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.366667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011477,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.083233,
        "worst_return": -0.068097,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.010749,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011173,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.083332,
        "worst_return": -0.092249,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.020959,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025855,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.109064,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.067488,
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        "worst_return": -0.069284,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 44.262769,
        "fair_value": 38.730294,
        "relative_strength": 1.41655,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "trend": 44.516576,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 591.0,
        "trend": 44.607118,
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        "relative_strength": -2.779533,
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        "energy": 28.484041,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 528.6,
        "trend": 44.820027,
        "fair_value": 39.094789,
        "relative_strength": -6.89828,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 16.322299,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 45.224998,
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        "typical_volume": 528.4,
        "trend": 44.956561,
        "fair_value": 39.165081,
        "relative_strength": -5.336345,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 528.4,
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        "fair_value": 39.24889,
        "relative_strength": -4.708998,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 517.85,
        "trend": 45.264639,
        "fair_value": 39.32166,
        "relative_strength": -6.275615,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 14.893576,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 16,
        "typical_volume": 518.65,
        "trend": 45.433949,
        "fair_value": 39.404304,
        "relative_strength": -3.791596,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 35.855648,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 47.427437,
        "volume": 416,
        "typical_volume": 529.05,
        "trend": 45.610202,
        "fair_value": 39.483084,
        "relative_strength": -3.113486,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.039637,
        "energy": 55.706957,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.750805,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.096329,
        "volume": 1248,
        "typical_volume": 538.35,
        "trend": 45.795931,
        "fair_value": 39.572385,
        "relative_strength": -2.413203,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.225145,
        "energy": 85.952685,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.314069,
          46.640384,
          46.440411,
          46.27335
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.235381,
        "volume": 3570,
        "typical_volume": 692.1,
        "trend": 46.019629,
        "fair_value": 39.672592,
        "relative_strength": -1.091139,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.792353,
        "energy": 96.86217,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.065595,
          47.170107,
          46.719595,
          46.49525
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 48.355,
        "volume": 416,
        "typical_volume": 692.1,
        "trend": 46.21398,
        "fair_value": 39.774662,
        "relative_strength": -3.264863,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.503462,
        "energy": 85.268258,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.338635,
          47.498936,
          46.898978,
          46.645919
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "close": 48.355,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 557.8,
        "trend": 46.379404,
        "fair_value": 39.875207,
        "relative_strength": -2.136258,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.580844,
        "energy": 86.21133,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.434749,
          47.778584,
          47.059457,
          46.78405
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}