{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bbdf555-abf4-4207-88a0-22a53a5b89b7", "symbol": "CTM", "name": "Centaurus Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.435, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.423, "architecture_energy": 62.642, "architecture_maturity": 20.553, "architecture_confidence": 89.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.54, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 12.75, "deceleration": 41.2, "rotation_down": 67.75, "downward_expansion": 88.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.45, 0.466545, 0.51769, 0.541032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 0.569333, "distance_from_trend": -0.156909, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.452276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.583618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.140629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013349, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.460001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.610744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4489753, "relative_activity": 1.215345, "balance": 0.610744, "dry_up": 1.278074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140625, "annualized_volatility": 0.578789, "from_high_reference": -0.376623, "from_low_reference": 0.411765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.569333, "fair_value_reference": 0.452276, "structural_low": 0.3975, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.018772, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.243523, "worst_return": -0.281481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010984, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.492063, "worst_return": -0.330935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034482, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.460317, "worst_return": -0.546763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.194805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184211, 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.108562, "energy": 56.067398, "activity_lines": [ 0.515667, 0.552727, 0.576, 0.584043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.455, "volume": 4569415, "typical_volume": 3884237.6, "trend": 0.583167, "fair_value": 0.461859, "relative_strength": -10.260564, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.422658, "energy": 73.348719, "activity_lines": [ 0.491333, 0.530455, 0.563167, 0.575839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.44, "volume": 2474447, "typical_volume": 3828424.65, "trend": 0.582833, "fair_value": 0.459038, "relative_strength": -13.417941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.098499, "energy": 76.804056, "activity_lines": [ 0.47, 0.507727, 0.549976, 0.566602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.425, "volume": 7525004, "typical_volume": 3999311.9, "trend": 0.579167, "fair_value": 0.456346, "relative_strength": -16.201011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.395145, "energy": 76.950823, "activity_lines": [ 0.451, 0.485909, 0.536476, 0.556419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.435, "volume": 4396748, "typical_volume": 3973071.95, "trend": 0.574333, "fair_value": 0.454199, "relative_strength": -16.262779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.547956, "energy": 75.688463, "activity_lines": [ 0.441, 0.470455, 0.524714, 0.547118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 4489753, "typical_volume": 3694220.7, "trend": 0.569333, "fair_value": 0.452276, "relative_strength": -10.583618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.422675, "energy": 62.641988, "activity_lines": [ 0.45, 0.466545, 0.51769, 0.541032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }