{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bccab5f-7576-418b-95ce-c80657a93f4b", "symbol": "600749", "name": "Tibet Tourism Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.771, "architecture_energy": 50.469, "architecture_maturity": 32.999, "architecture_confidence": 94.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.91, "rotation_up": 22.38, "upward_expansion": 9.34, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 50.32, "downward_expansion": 80.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.014, 14.119636, 14.804238, 15.299785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.56, "trend_reference": 15.892667, "distance_from_trend": -0.083854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.658269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.906197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123947, "excess_performance": -0.080743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695993, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38855492, "relative_activity": 0.782495, "balance": 0.695993, "dry_up": 0.847215, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081097, "annualized_volatility": 0.480048, "from_high_reference": -0.55034, "from_low_reference": 0.112299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.892667, "fair_value_reference": 13.658269, "structural_low": 13.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.041791, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032126, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.141717, "worst_return": -0.118734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.133577, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235056, "worst_return": -0.095177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.114642, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.058713, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.247027, "worst_return": -0.170401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.830638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.303615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 14.391333, 14.719636, 15.531286, 15.887806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.99, "volume": 55372204, "typical_volume": 47442656.3, "trend": 16.219333, "fair_value": 13.645513, "relative_strength": -18.516504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.116708, "energy": 59.31673, "activity_lines": [ 14.187333, 14.525454, 15.341476, 15.738322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.1, "volume": 38795252, "typical_volume": 48062229.8, "trend": 16.081333, "fair_value": 13.644231, "relative_strength": -24.718296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.977548, "energy": 68.000178, "activity_lines": [ 13.835333, 14.213273, 15.078476, 15.537075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.82, "volume": 35254043, "typical_volume": 48727756.85, "trend": 15.976667, "fair_value": 13.649231, "relative_strength": -20.366526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.804946, "energy": 60.872021, "activity_lines": [ 13.816, 14.085636, 14.899476, 15.391183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.56, "volume": 38855492, "typical_volume": 49655899.9, "trend": 15.892667, "fair_value": 13.658269, "relative_strength": -16.906197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.770779, "energy": 50.468581, "activity_lines": [ 14.014, 14.119636, 14.804238, 15.299785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }