{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bd37246-db3b-48a2-a133-c3cf95ee4a67", "symbol": "HRL-F26", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) NASDAQ 100", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.718, "architecture_energy": 67.415, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.36, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.927333, 93.134545, 2358.264762, 3888.651183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 93.88, "trend_reference": 5629.217333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7243.067436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.797195, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988534, "excess_performance": -1.017435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336933, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 89.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015189, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.006244, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.157132, "worst_return": -0.118024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063142, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031314, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.222416, "worst_return": -0.071631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152012, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.085111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163033, "worst_return": -0.016111, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.360301, "energy": 84.224538, "activity_lines": [ 93.441333, 1063.730727, 3792.24281, 5069.743634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.39, "volume": 106040, "typical_volume": 80542.3, "trend": 6194.149, "fair_value": 7318.669679, "relative_strength": -98.903576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.299841, "energy": 68.444863, "activity_lines": [ 92.988667, 577.945636, 3275.731952, 4657.719161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.17, "volume": 181280, "typical_volume": 83398.1, "trend": 5912.454667, "fair_value": 7280.888718, "relative_strength": -98.847658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.191339, "energy": 68.188532, "activity_lines": [ 92.650667, 254.695273, 2797.655429, 4264.043097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.88, "volume": 171951, "typical_volume": 85437.6, "trend": 5629.217333, "fair_value": 7243.067436, "relative_strength": -98.797195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.718187, "energy": 67.415241, "activity_lines": [ 92.927333, 93.134545, 2358.264762, 3888.651183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }