{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bdc0c0d-0ce6-4409-9538-011ffc5fc03a", "symbol": "SHA", "name": "SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.801, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.816, "architecture_energy": 7.383, "architecture_maturity": 10.465, "architecture_confidence": 52.854, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.94, "rotation_up": 24.09, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 58.58, "rotation_down": 43.42, "downward_expansion": 40.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.602, 6.630727, 6.729381, 6.71878 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.86, "trend_reference": 6.689315, "distance_from_trend": 0.025516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.557456, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.928344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.467006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029442, "excess_performance": -0.034264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.928344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029442, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 506104, "relative_activity": 0.950216, "balance": 0.748603, "dry_up": 1.141818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085613, "annualized_volatility": 0.463166, "from_high_reference": -0.138191, "from_low_reference": 0.899227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.689315, "fair_value_reference": 3.557456, "structural_low": 5.56, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030717, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006715, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.108874, "worst_return": -0.024844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.100341, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.112851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100341, "worst_return": 0.100341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.277816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.214371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277816, "worst_return": 0.277816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.73963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.62887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.73963, "worst_return": 0.73963, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.067385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06192, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.156286, "volume": 6758, "typical_volume": 14242.15, "trend": 1.224688, "fair_value": 1.379136, 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"direction": 12.44962, "energy": 9.669603, "activity_lines": [ 6.662, 6.814545, 6.78, 6.733523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.46, "volume": 467727, "typical_volume": 525115.8, "trend": 6.637484, "fair_value": 3.453652, "relative_strength": 8.317801, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.26932, "energy": 13.926401, "activity_lines": [ 6.581333, 6.727455, 6.754, 6.72332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.7, "volume": 445340, "typical_volume": 506715.15, "trend": 6.659596, "fair_value": 3.488821, "relative_strength": 11.68717, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.434966, "energy": 13.688343, "activity_lines": [ 6.582667, 6.688545, 6.75181, 6.727354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.34, "volume": 1013449, "typical_volume": 521460.25, "trend": 6.673302, "fair_value": 3.521524, "relative_strength": 2.476442, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.081609, "energy": 24.984079, "activity_lines": [ 6.484, 6.602364, 6.715524, 6.706735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.86, "volume": 506104, "typical_volume": 532619.7, "trend": 6.689315, "fair_value": 3.557456, "relative_strength": 6.467006, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.816199, "energy": 7.383482, "activity_lines": [ 6.602, 6.630727, 6.729381, 6.71878 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }