{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1be65f93-d066-447e-be2f-c24eb08652d3", "symbol": "002918", "name": "Monalisa Group CO.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.014, "architecture_energy": 46.335, "architecture_maturity": 34.783, "architecture_confidence": 87.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.79, "rotation_up": 15.73, "upward_expansion": 6.01, "deceleration": 51.42, "rotation_down": 61.59, "downward_expansion": 79.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.233333, 9.613867, 10.81936, 11.501493 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.78, "trend_reference": 12.676595, "distance_from_trend": -0.228499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.494148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.430047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398894, "excess_performance": -0.406293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.405903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60976288, "relative_activity": 1.02165, "balance": 0.405903, "dry_up": 1.04405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210473, "annualized_volatility": 0.881528, "from_high_reference": -0.481717, "from_low_reference": 0.216418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.676595, "fair_value_reference": 11.494148, "structural_low": 8.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.005889, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.004053, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.376351, "worst_return": -0.27957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077134, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.449401, "worst_return": -0.276121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.103878, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044712, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.722731, "worst_return": -0.323401, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 55992287.85, "trend": 12.985928, "fair_value": 11.571496, "relative_strength": -36.751756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.886257, "energy": 71.74552, "activity_lines": [ 9.152667, 10.081665, 11.22053, 11.944128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.17, "volume": 71484416, "typical_volume": 57865112.2, "trend": 12.824928, "fair_value": 11.536191, "relative_strength": -30.433828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.155172, "energy": 60.964478, "activity_lines": [ 9.065333, 9.743525, 10.981635, 11.69794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.78, "volume": 60976288, "typical_volume": 59684101.35, "trend": 12.676595, "fair_value": 11.494148, "relative_strength": -29.430047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.013797, "energy": 46.334842, "activity_lines": [ 9.233333, 9.613867, 10.81936, 11.501493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }