{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bebd53a-58fe-44a5-a206-3a31530f2c83", "symbol": "HSEM", "name": "HSBC Emerging Market Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.187, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.659, "architecture_energy": 26.415, "architecture_maturity": 45.896, "architecture_confidence": 86.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.94, "rotation_up": 36.18, "upward_expansion": 59.29, "deceleration": 84.47, "rotation_down": 26.38, "downward_expansion": 18.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.211667, 22.216909, 22.188881, 21.908108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.615, "trend_reference": 21.590467, "distance_from_trend": 0.047453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.636205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.961391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07588, "excess_performance": -0.007003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041647, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.811207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37689, "relative_activity": 7.853675, "balance": 4.811207, "dry_up": 2.851591, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022653, "annualized_volatility": 0.187821, "from_high_reference": -0.011366, "from_low_reference": 0.27653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.590467, "fair_value_reference": 16.636205, "structural_low": 19.232, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009989, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.1284, "worst_return": -0.088486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034727, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.028851, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.15412, "worst_return": -0.011503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101144, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056966, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.151577, "worst_return": -0.004448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029996, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.17559, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027021, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.696, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8063.5, "trend": 13.099733, "fair_value": 14.273078, "relative_strength": 1.024375, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.105296, "energy": 25.309576, "activity_lines": [ 22.113667, 22.205909, 22.088776, 21.805054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.940001, "volume": 6952, "typical_volume": 2914.45, "trend": 21.515467, "fair_value": 16.574853, "relative_strength": -2.511407, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.111404, "energy": 17.527118, "activity_lines": [ 22.052334, 22.148818, 22.111162, 21.83717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.615, "volume": 37689, "typical_volume": 4798.9, "trend": 21.590467, "fair_value": 16.636205, "relative_strength": -0.961391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.658704, "energy": 26.414953, "activity_lines": [ 22.211667, 22.216909, 22.188881, 21.908108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }