{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bec8503-d34e-463c-875c-06dd2fdc0907", "symbol": "ODFL", "name": "Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.001, "architecture_energy": 19.803, "architecture_maturity": 55.405, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.55, "rotation_up": 22.61, "upward_expansion": 55.25, "deceleration": 90.44, "rotation_down": 32.1, "downward_expansion": 21.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 3771.66333, 3831.480531, 3795.480797, 3707.392146 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3713.0, "trend_reference": 3571.117285, "distance_from_trend": 0.039731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3416.970893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.963573, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063991, "excess_performance": 0.118658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039731, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139636, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063991, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.22905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384, "relative_activity": 1.903818, "balance": 7.22905, "dry_up": 0.596182, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046517, "annualized_volatility": 0.395161, "from_high_reference": -0.123776, "from_low_reference": 0.587752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3571.117285, "fair_value_reference": 3416.970893, "structural_low": 3154.23999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029895, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.061972, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.020337, "worst_return": -0.161628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.159193, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.170009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045105, "worst_return": -0.241657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065441, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101729, "worst_return": -0.292318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024829, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079661, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.201296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": 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3524.692952, "fair_value": 3413.114709, "relative_strength": 21.385913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.142165, "energy": 37.849339, "activity_lines": [ 3897.668652, 3913.380025, 3798.715639, 3689.476085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3640.0, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 203.65, "trend": 3550.608105, "fair_value": 3414.629094, "relative_strength": 12.055031, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.950207, "energy": 22.927739, "activity_lines": [ 3816.609993, 3866.878081, 3794.708337, 3696.915249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3713.0, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 201.7, "trend": 3571.117285, "fair_value": 3416.970893, "relative_strength": 13.963573, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.001129, "energy": 19.80263, "activity_lines": [ 3771.66333, 3831.480531, 3795.480797, 3707.392146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }