{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1bf05eed-c29d-4fb8-bf7c-c4a43b63db8d", "symbol": "IDT", "name": "IDT Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.606, "architecture_energy": 86.595, "architecture_maturity": 43.234, "architecture_confidence": 85.463, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 81.56, "upward_expansion": 99.37, "deceleration": 39.28, "rotation_down": 9.86, "downward_expansion": 21.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.610667, 62.211821, 58.673175, 56.295044 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 65.08, "trend_reference": 53.544893, "distance_from_trend": 0.215429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.688617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424425, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.526929, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.352188, "excess_performance": 0.226563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.215429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075269, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.352188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.116938, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 961413, "relative_activity": 1.152458, "balance": 4.116938, "dry_up": 1.152996, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058159, "annualized_volatility": 0.180604, "from_high_reference": -0.054112, "from_low_reference": 0.428986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.544893, "fair_value_reference": 45.688617, "structural_low": 46.35421, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006345, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015589, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.209634, "worst_return": -0.242694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.012697, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06041, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.210996, "worst_return": -0.24752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017087, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.129338, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.382183, "worst_return": -0.209844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 78.998608, "energy": 72.916216, "activity_lines": [ 58.551333, 56.928583, 54.543412, 53.140731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.16, "volume": 839083, "typical_volume": 820826.95, "trend": 52.13938, "fair_value": 44.885659, "relative_strength": 8.03156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.56794, "energy": 83.155028, "activity_lines": [ 60.450667, 58.291417, 55.53431, 53.877178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.3, "volume": 1034491, "typical_volume": 835942.75, "trend": 52.554735, "fair_value": 45.150486, "relative_strength": 10.716766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.982169, "energy": 87.516154, "activity_lines": [ 62.161333, 59.685221, 56.57498, 54.661734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.86, "volume": 1012462, "typical_volume": 837228.25, "trend": 53.068964, "fair_value": 45.426516, "relative_strength": 12.333092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.196009, "energy": 90.520693, "activity_lines": [ 63.8, 61.137847, 57.70232, 55.520138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.08, "volume": 961413, "typical_volume": 834228.55, "trend": 53.544893, "fair_value": 45.688617, "relative_strength": 7.526929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.606464, "energy": 86.594815, "activity_lines": [ 64.610667, 62.211821, 58.673175, 56.295044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }